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CV

 

PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION

Name: Ricardo Jorge Magalhães de Abreu Santos Sousa.

Birth date: 16 October 1976.

Birth place: Ponte de Lima, Portugal.

Nationality: Portuguese.

Civil status: Single with two children.

E-mail: rjsousa@eeg.uminho.pt; rjsousa@alumni.lse.ac.uk.

 

 

 

EDUCATION

2005-2008: PhD in Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science.                

2003-2005: MRes (Master Research) in Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science.

1999-2002: Master (MPhil) in Economic Policy, University of Minho.

1995-1999: BSc in Economics, University of Minho.

1994-1995: BSc in Medicine (1st year), Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto.

1991-1994: Didálvi College.

1986-1991: La Salle College.

 

 

 

NON-ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE

2017-2019: Senior Economist, Economic and Market Analysis Division (EMA), European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

2016-2017: Senior Economist, Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS), Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

2015-2016: Senior Economist, Economics for the Latin America & the Caribbean Division (ELAC), Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

2015: Visiting Scholar, Research Department (RES), International Monetary Fund (IMF).

2013: Economist, Euro Area Macroeconomic Developments Division (EAM), European Central Bank (ECB).

2011-2012: Economist, Macro Financial Analysis Division (MFAD), Bank of England.

2010: Visiting Researcher, Research Department, Central Bank of Portugal.

2009: Consultant, Fiscal Policies Division (FIP), European Central Bank (ECB).

2009: Researcher/PhD Intern, International Policy Analysis Division (IPA), European Central Bank (ECB).

2008: Consultant, Monetary Policy Stance Division (MSN), European Central Bank (ECB).

2008: Researcher/PhD Intern, Monetary Policy Stance Division (MSN), European Central Bank (ECB).

2008: Researcher/PhD Intern, Fiscal Policies Division (FIP), European Central Bank (ECB).

 

 

 

ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE

2020-present: Associate Professor with Habilitation, Department of Economics, University of Minho.

2018-2020: Associate Professor with Tenure (on leave), Department of Economics, University of Minho.

2012-2018:     Assistant Professor with Tenure (on leave), Department of Economics, University of Minho.

Academic year 2014-2015, Computational Methods Applied to Economics (MPhil/PhD in Economics), Topics of Financial Economics (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics), Macroeconomics II (BSc in Economics).

Academic year 2013-2014, Mathematical Economics (MPhil/PhD in Economics), Topics of Financial Economics (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics), Macroeconomics II (BSc in Economics).

2008-present: Effective Member, Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), University of Minho.

2008-present: Researcher, LSE Alumni Association, London School of Economics and Political Science.

2008-2012: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Minho.

Academic year 2012-2013, Computational Methods Applied to Economics (MPhil/PhD in Economics), Topics of Financial Economics (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics), Macroeconomics II (BSc in Economics), Economics I (BSc in Accountancy).

Academic year 2010-2011, Computational Methods Applied to Economics (MPhil/PhD in Economics), Financial Economics (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics), Macroeconomics II (BSc in Economics), Mathematical Economics I (BSc in Economics).

Academic year 2009-2010, Mathematical Economics (MSc/PhD in Economics), Monetary Economics (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics), Financial Economics (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics), Mathematical Economics I (BSc in Economics).

Academic year 2008-2009, Advanced Macroeconomics II (MSc in Economics), Mathematical Economics (MSc in Economics), Complements of Macroeconomics (MSc in Economics, Markets and Public Policies), Monetary and Financial Economics (BSc in Economics), Macroeconomics II (BSc in Economics), Mathematical Economics I (BSc in Economics), and Economics and Monetary Policy (BSc in Management).

Academic year 2007-2008, Mathematical Economics (MSc in Economics), Economic Analysis (MSc in Maths), Macroeconomics II (BSc in Economics) and Optimization and Economic Modelling (BSc in Maths).

2006-2007: Research Assistant, Financial Markets Group (FMG), London School of Economics and Political Science.

2006-2007: Teaching Fellow, Department of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Academic year 2006-2007, EC437 – Financial Econometrics, for Dr. Vassilis Hajivassiliou and EC400 – Introductory Courses in Maths and Statistics for MSc Students (Revision Maths and Maths for Micro), for Dr. Margaret Bray and Dr. Georg Weizsacker.

2004-2006: Graduate Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Academic year 2005-2006, EC210 – Macroeconomic Principles, for Dr. Javier Ortega and Dr. Eran Yashiv and EC400 – Introductory Courses in Maths and Statistics for MSc Students (Maths and Maths for Micro), for Dr. Margaret Bray and Dr. Gilat Levy.

Academic year 2004-2005, EC210 – Macroeconomic Principles, for Dr. Barbara Petrongolo and Dr. Eran Yashiv.

2002-2008: Assistant, Department of Economics, University of Minho.

Academic year 2002-2003, Stabilizing Economic Policies (MSc in Economic Policy), Macroeconomic Analysis I (BSc in Economics), Economics II (BSc in Management), Political Economy II (BSc in Public Administration).

2000-2002: Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics, University of Minho.

Academic year 2001-2002, Political Economy (BSc in Law).

Academic year 2000-2001, Macroeconomic Analysis (BSc in International Relations), Methods and Technics of Planning (BSc in Geology).

2000: Research Assistant, Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), University of Minho. Research project: “Macroeconomic performance indicators of Cávado's NUT: comparative analysis with the major NUTS III of the Continent, the Continent and Galicia”.

1999-2000: Research Assistant, Applied Microeconomics Research Unit (NIMA), University of Minho. Research project: “Globalization and Social Exclusion”, European Commission, IV R&D Program, TSER Program. 

 

 

 

EDITORIAL EXPERIENCE

2020-present: Associate Editor of the Economic Modelling.

 

 

 

RESEARCH

Research interests: Empirical Finance and Asset Pricing Models, International Finance, Corporate Finance, Macroeconomics, Housing Economics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Emerging Market Economies, Macro-Econometrics and Quantitative Methods, Economic Modeling, Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Econometrics, Energy Economics, Development and Growth, Political Economy, and Regional and Urban Economics.

 

ORCID: 0000-0002-8279-5753. [https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8279-5753?lang=en]

Google Scholar: Citations: 3426; h-index: 31; i10-index: 74. [http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6kqFx8oAAAAJ]

Ideas Repec: Citations: 1227; h-index: 21; i10-index: 40. [http://ideas.repec.org/e/pso60.html]

                        (Ranked #8 among 'authors in Portugal', top 1%). [http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.portugal.html#authors]

                        (Ranked #429 among 'Top 10% authors (Last 10 Years Publications)'). [https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all10.html]

Researcher ID: F-8013-2010; Citations: 1048; h-index: 20. [http://www.researcherid.com/rid/F-8013-2010]

Scopus: Citations: 1294; h-index: 22. [http://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.url?authorId=35270013700]

SSRN[http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=475556]

 

 

 

 

Dissertations

[2] Sousa, Ricardo M. (2008), Consumption, Housing and Financial Wealth, Asset Returns, and Monetary Policy, Thesis submitted to the Department of Economics of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD). Supervisors: Dr. Alexander Michaelides (LSE) and Dr. Christian Julliard (LSE). Committee: Professor Oliver Linton (LSE), Dr. Alexander Michaelides (LSE), Dr. Christian Julliard (LSE) and Dr. Kevin Sheppard (University of Oxford).

[1] Sousa, Ricardo M. (2002), Stock Market, Wealth, and Consumption, Thesis submitted to the Department of Economics of the University of Minho for the degree of Master of Philosophy (MPhil). Supervisor: Professor Dolores Cabral (University of Minho). Committee: Professor António Ferraz (University of Minho), Professor Dolores Cabral (University of Minho) and Professor Álvaro Aguiar (University of Porto).

 

Forthcoming Publications

[3] “Linking U.S. state-level housing market returns and the consumption-(dis)aggregate wealth ratio”, International Review of Economics and Finance, forthcoming. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 1.818]

[2] “What can fifty-two collateralizable wealth measures tell us about future housing market returns? Evidence from U.S. state-level data”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, forthcoming. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 0.967]

[1] "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 1.591]

 

Selected Publications

[64] "The housing cycle: What role for mortgage market development and housing finance?", Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2020, 61, 607-670. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 0.967]

[63] “Unconventional monetary reaction functions: Evidence from the U.S.”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2020, 24(4), 20180088. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro, F. Jawadi and G. Dufrénot) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 0.533]

[62] “Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycles”, Energy Economics, 2020, 90, 104862. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 5.203]

[61] “Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread and flight to quality”, European Financial Management, 2020, 26(3), 778-807. (with M. Costantini) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 1.470]

[60] “How does monetary policy respond to the dynamics of the shadow banking sector?”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2020, 25(2), 228-247. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and F. Jawadi) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 0.943]

[59] “U.S. equity and commodity futures markets: hedging or financialization?”, Energy Economics, 2020, 86, 104660. (joint with D.K. Nguyen, A. Şensoy and G.S. Uddin) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 5.302]

[58] “A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2019, 63, 101148. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2018): 1.719] 

[57] “Can the consumption-wealth ratio predict housing returns? Evidence from OECD countries”, Real Estate Economics2019, 47(4), 935-956. (with G.M. Caporale and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2018): 1.103]

[56] “Asset returns under model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S.“, Computational Economics2019, 54(1), 139-176. (with J. Sousa) [ISI J6R Impact Factor (2018): 1.038]

[55] “The legacy and the tyranny of time: Exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50(8), 1969-1994. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 1.470]

[54] "Economic activity, credit market conditions and the housing market", Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, 22(7), 1769-1789. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.723]

[53] "Wealth-to-income ratio and stock market movements: Evidence from a nonparametric causality test", International Review of Finance, 2018, 18(3), 495-506. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.633]

[52] "Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?", Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 37, 650-665. (with Z. An, J.T. Jalles and P. Loungani) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.934]

[51] “The impact of fiscal consolidation on human development”, Journal of International Development2018, 30(3), 399-429. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.863]

[50] "Financial markets' shutdown and re-access", Economic Inquiry2018, 56(1), 562-571. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 1.031]

[49] "A forensic perspective of the determinants of banks' CDS spreads", Journal of Financial Stability2017, 33, 60-70. (with N. Benbouzid and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 1.946]

[48] "Predicting risk premium under changes in the conditional distribution of stock returns", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money2017, 50, 204-218. (with J. Sousa) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 1.379]

[47] “On the macroeconomic impact and the wealth effects of unconventional monetary policy”, Macroeconomic Dynamics2017, 21(5), 1189-1204. (with F. Jawadi and R. Traverso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 0.718]

[46] “The skill premium effect of technological change: Evidence from the US manufacturing sector“, International Labour Review2017, 155(1), 113-131. (with S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 0.643]

[45] “Do country-level financial structures explain bank-level CDS ?”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money2017, 48, 135-145. (with N. Benbouzid and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 1.379]

[44] “Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability”, International Tax and Public Finance2017, 24(3), 484-511. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 0.624]

[43] The predictability of cay and cayMS for stock and housing returns: A nonparametric causality in quantile test“, International Review of Economics and Finance2017, 48, 269-279. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 1.261]

[42] “Spillovers from the oil market to the housing market cycle”, Energy Economics2017, 61, 209-220. (with L. Agnello, L., V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 3.199]

[41] “Fiscal and monetary policies in the BRICS: A panel VAR approach", Economic Modelling2016, 58, 535-542. (with F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2015): 0.997]

[40] "National fiscal consolidations and regional inequality in Europe", Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society2016, 9(1), 59-80. (with L. Agnello and G. Fazio) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2015): 2.111]

[39] “Predicting asset returns in the BRICs: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors", International Review of Economics and Finance2016, 41, 122-143. (with A. Vivian and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2015): 1.846]

[38] “Booms, busts and normal times in the housing market"Journal of Business& Economic Statistics2015, 33(1), 25-45. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 2.241]

[37] “US monetary policy and commodity sector prices", Journal of International Money and Finance2015, 57, 61-85. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 2.117]

[36] "Is fiscal fatigue a threat to consolidation programmes?", Environment & Planning C: Government & Policy2015, 33(4), 765-779. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 1.535]

[35] “Can re-regulation of the financial sector strike back public debt?", Economic Modelling2015, 51, 159-171. (with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.827]

[34]“”An empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through to CO2 emission prices”, Energy Economics2015, 49, 149-156. (with S. Hammoudeh, A. Lahiani and D.K. Nguyen) [ISI JCR (Economics) Impact Factor (2014): 2.708]

[33] ”What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?"European Journal of Political Economy2015, 37, 129-145. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR (Economics) Impact Factor (2014): 1.468]

[32] “Linking wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields", European Journal of Finance2015, 21(10/11), 806-825. [ISI JCR (Business and Finance) Impact Factor (2014): 0.750]

[31] “Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms"Applied Economics2015, 47(34-35), 3740-3755. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.613]

[30] “Consumption growth, preference for smoothing, changes in expectations and risk premium", Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2015, 56, 80-97. (with M.J. Rocha Armada and M.E. Wohar)

[29] “What is the impact of wealth shocks on asset allocation?”, Quantitative Finance2015, 15(3), 493-508. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.653]

[28] “Testing for asymmetric causality between U.S. equity returns and commodity futures returns"Finance Research Letters2015, 12, 38-47. (with D.K. Nguyen and G.S. Uddin) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.646]

[27] “Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain”, Economic Modelling2015, 44, 358-362. (with L. Agnello and G. Dufrénot) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.827]

[26] “How does fiscal consolidation impact on income inequality?”, Review of Income and Wealth2014, 60(4), 702-726(with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.74]

[25] “What explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?"Energy Economics2014, 46, 122-135. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 2.58]

[24] “Fiscal adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment", Economics Letters2014, 124(2), 231-235. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.457]

[23] “Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach"Energy Policy2014, 70, 201-206. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 2.696]

[22] “Nonlinear monetary policy reaction functions in large emerging economies: The case of Brazil and China”, Applied Economics2014, 46(9), 973-984. (with F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.518]

[21] “The effects of monetary policy in a small open economy: The case of Portugal”, Applied Economics2014, 46(2), 240-251. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.518]

[20] “Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices”, Economic Modelling2013, 34, 25-36(with L. Agnello and G. Dufrénot) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.557]

[19] "How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending", Economic Modelling2013, 34, 15-24. (with L. Agnello and D. Furceri) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.557]

[18] "Political, institutional and economic factors underlying deficit volatility", Review of International Economics2013, 21(4), 719-732(with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.708]

[17] “What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?”, Journal of International Money and Finance2013, 37, 113-134. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.858]

[16] “The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone”, International Review of Financial Analysis2013, 30, 1-17. Lead article. (with S.K. Mallick)

[15] “Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity", Economic Modelling2013, 32(1), 507-515. (with F. Jawadi) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.557]

[14] “Real effects of monetary policy in large emerging economies”, Macroeconomic Dynamics2012, 16(S2), 190-212. (with S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.452]

[13] “How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?”, Journal of Macroeconomics2012, 34(3), 874-890. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.496]

[12] “Financial reforms and income inequality“, Economics Letters2012116(3), 583-587. (with L. Agnello and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.447]

[11] “Investment in emerging market economiesEmpirical Economics2012, 43(1), 97-119. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.597]

[10] “Wealth effects in emerging market economies”, International Review of Economics and Finance2012, 24(2), 155-166. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.927]

[9] “How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?"Economic Modelling2012, 29(3), 641-653. (with V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.701]

[8] “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy”, Applied Economics2012, 44(34), 4439-4454. (with A. Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.459]

[7] “Assessing long-term fiscal developments: a new approach”, Journal of International Money and Finance2011, 30(1), 130-146. (with A. Afonso, L. Agnello and D. Furceri) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.836]

[6] “What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?“Economic Modelling2011, 28(4), 1871-1890. (with A. Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.601]

[5] “The impact of government spending on the private sector: crowding-out versus crowding-in effects”, Kyklos2011, 64(4), 516-533. Lead article. (with D. Furceri) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 1.127]

[4] “Fundamentals, financial factors and the dynamics of investment in emerging marketsEmerging Markets Finance and Trade2011, 47(03S2), 88-105. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.444]

[3] “Building empirical proxies that capture time-variation in expected returns using a VAR approach”, Applied Financial Economics2011, 21(3), 147-163.

[2] “Consumption, (dis)aggregate wealth and asset returns“, Journal of Empirical Finance2010, 17(4), 606-622. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.807]

[1] “Housing wealth, financial wealth, money demand and policy rule: evidence from the euro area", North American Journal of Economics and Finance2010, 21(1), 88-105.

 

Other Publications

[37] "Os 20 anos do euro: O problema das lentes a “preto e zero”". Crítica Económica e Social, 2019, 20 (November-December), 19-24. (with R. Cabral) (republished from Público, 2019, October 23rd)

[36] “Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle”, Applied Economics Letters2018, 25(10), 724-729. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.504]

[35] “How do fiscal consolidation and fiscal stimuli impact on the synchronization of business cycles?”Bulletin of Economic Research2017, 69(4), 309-329. (with L. Agnello and G.M. Caporale) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 0.358]

[34] "Assessing financial and housing wealth effects through the lens of a nonlinear framework", Research in International Business and Finance2017, 39(B), 840-850. (with F. Jawadi and R. Soparnot)

[33] “Financial stress and sovereign debt composition”, Applied Economics Letters2016, 23(9), 678-683. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2015): 0.378]

[32] “Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets”, Research in International Business and Finance2016, 36, 562-578. (with G.M. Caporale)

[31] “Do debt crises boost financial reforms?"Applied Economics Letters2015, 22(5), 356-360. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.303]

[30] “Modelling the relationship between consumption and wealth in the US, the UK and the euro area", Revue d'Economie Politique2014, 124(4), 639-652. (with F. Jawadi) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.145]

[29] “Fiscal policy in the BRICs”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics2014, 18(2), 201-215. (with F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.276]

[28] "The determinants of the volatility of fiscal policy discretion", Fiscal Studies2014, 35(1), 91-115. (with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.319]

[27] "Windfall gains and labour supply: Evidence from the European Household Panel", IZA Journal of Labor Economics2014, 3(1), 1-27. (with U. Sila)

[26] “Wealth, asset portfolio, money demand and policy rule”, Bulletin of Economic Research201466(1), 95-111. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.333]

[25] “Commodity prices, inflationary pressures, and monetary policy: Evidence from BRICS economies”, Open Economies Review2013, 24(4), 677-694. (with S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.404]

[24] “Modelling money demand: Further evidence from an international comparison”, Applied Economics Letters2013, 20(11), 1052-1055. (with F. Jawadi) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.295]

[23] “Fiscal policy and asset prices"Bulletin of Economic Research2013, 65(2), 154-177. (with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.289]

[22] “Discretionary government consumption, private domestic demand, and crisis episodes"Open Economies Review2013, 24(1), 79-100. (with L. Agnello and D. Furceri) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.404]

[21] “Structural breaks and nonlinearity in US and UK public debt"Applied Economics Letters2013, 20(7), 653-657. (with F. Jawadi) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.295]

[20] “Fiscal adjustments and income inequality: A first assessment”, Applied Economics Letters2012, 19(16), 1627-1632. (with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.226]

[19] “How do banking crises impact on income inequality?”, Applied Economics Letters2012, 19(15), 1425-1429. (with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.226]

[18] “Wealth-to-income ratio, government bond yields and financial stress in the Euro Area”, Applied Economics Letters2012, 19(11), 1085-1088. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.226]

[17] “Wealth-to-income ratio and stock returns: Evidence from the Euro Area”Applied Economics Letters2012, 19(7), 619-622. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.226]

[16] “Time-varying expected returns: evidence from the U.S. and the U.K.”, Applied Economics Letters2012, 19(5), 413-416. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.226]

[15] “Consumption, wealth, stock and government bond returns: international evidence”The Manchester School2011, 79(6), 1294-1332. (with A. Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.333]

[14] “Fiscal regime shifts in PortugalPortuguese Economic Journal2011, 10(2), 83-108. (with A. Afonso and P. Claeys) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.25]

[13] “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis”Portuguese Economic Journal2011, 10(1), 61-82. (with A. Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.25]

[12] “Assessing long-term fiscal developments: evidence from Portugal”, Applied Economics Letters2011, 18, 1-5. Lead article. (with A. Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.245]

[11] “Can fiscal policy stimulus boost economic recovery?”, Revue Économique2011, 62(6), 1045-1066. (with L. Agnello)

[10] “Does government spending crowd-out private consumption and investment? Theory and some empirical evidence”, World Economics2011, 12(4), 153-170. (with D. Furceri)

[9] “The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns: The Euro Area, the UK and the US”, Journal of Money, Investment and Banking2010, 16, 12-28.

[8] “Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area”, Banks and Bank Systems2010, 5(2), 78-87.

[7] “How do consumption and asset returns react to wealth shocks: evidence from the U.S. and the U.K.”The Empirical Economics Letters2010, 9(5), 515-522.

[6] “Financial wealth, housing wealth, and consumption“, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics2008, 19, 167-191.

[5] “Some employment indicators of the North of Portugal“, Eco Revista del Eje Atlântico2003, N.o 147, August, A Coruña43.

[4] “Demographical dynamics of the North of Portugal and Galiza: a comparative perspective“, Eco Revista del Eje Atlântico2003, N.o 142, March, A Coruña29.

[3] “Economic performance indicators: a synthesis“, Cadernos de Estudos Municipais2002, N.o 13, June, University of Minho117-132. (with J. Cadima Ribeiro and D. Cabral)

[2] “Profile of the low-wages worker and company in Portugal“, Economia, 2000, Vol. XXIV, January-May-October, Portuguese Catholic University, Lisbon, 53-66. (with A.R. Cardoso, V. Castro and P. Ferreira)

[1] “Municipal development dynamics in the Cávado's Valley - A reflection from some employment indicators“, Cadernos de Estudos Municipais1999, N.o 11-12, June-December, University of Minho243-253. (with D. Cabral)

 

Book Chapters

[6] "How accurate are private sector fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Great Recession", In: 21st Federal Forecasters Consortium Conference, Papers and ProceedingsU.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, 4 September, 2015, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA. (with Z. An, J.T. Jalles and P. Loungani)

[5] “The impact of income inequality and fiscal stimuli on political (in)stability”, In: Beyond the austerity dispute: New priorities for fiscal policy, 17th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia, 9-11 April, 2015Banca d'Italia, Perugia, Italy(with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J.T. Jalles)

[4] “Fiscal policy and asset price cycles: Evidence from four European countries”, In: Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Imbalances, 15th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia, 4-6 April, 2013Banca d'Italia, Perugia, Italy(with L. Agnello and G. Dufrénot)

[3] “Can the wealth-to-income ratio be a useful predictor in Alternative Finance? Evidence from the housing risk premium”, In: Barnett, W.A.; Jawadi, F. (Eds.), Recent Developments in Alternative Finance: Empirical Assessments and Economic Implications, International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics2012Emerald Group Publishing, Bingley, UK(with M.J. Rocha Armada)

[2] “Collateralizable wealth, asset returns and systemic risk: international evidence”, In: Barnett, W.A.; Jawadi, F. (Eds.), Nonlinear Modeling of Economic and Financial Time-SeriesInternational Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics2010, 20, 1-27, Emerald Group Publishing, London. Lead Chapter.

[1] “Wealth effects on consumption”, In: Boskins, A.P. (Ed.), Consumer Economics: New ResearchNova Science Publishers, New York, 2008.

 

Policy Papers

[20] "The benevolence of time, sound macroeconomic environment and governance quality on the duration of sovereign ratings phases"European Stability Mechanism, ESM Working Paper No. 342019. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)

[19] "Lessons from the last euro area capital flows boom-bust cycle", European Stability Mechanism, ESM Discussion Paper No. 3. In: ESM (Ed.), Cross-border capital flows and capital markets union: Quo vadis Europe? European Stability Mechanism (ESM): Luxembourg, 5-18. 2018. (with S. Armendariz, S. and A. Gavilán).

[18] “External debt composition and domestic credit cycles”European Stability Mechanism, ESM Working Paper No. 282018. (with S. Avdjiev and S. Binder)

[17] “Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of alternative types of bond financing”, European Stability Mechanism, ESM Working Paper No. 26. 2018. (with J.M. Serena)

[16] “Assessing fiscal policy stance through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles”Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 6382017. (with E. Alberola-Ila)

[15] “External debt composition and credit cycles”Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 6272017. (with S. Avdjiev and S. Binder)

[14] “Repo market functioning”, Bank for International Settlements, CGFS Papers2017, 59, 1-65. Report prepared by a Study Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS).

[13] “Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of alternative types of bond financing”Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 6242017.(with J.M. Serena)

[12] “Inflation expectations and monetary policy", In: Bank for International Settlements, Ed., Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policyBank for International Settlements, BIS Papers2016, 89, 41-67. (with J. Yetman)

[11] “Asset returns under model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S.”, European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 15752013. (with J. Sousa)

[10] “How does fiscal consolidation impact on income inequality?”, Banque de France, Document de Travail No. 3822011. (with L. Agnello)

[9] “Fiscal policy discretion, private spending and crisis episodes”, Banque de France, Document de Travail No. 3542011. (with L. Agnello and D. Furceri)

[8] “Asset returns under model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S.”, Central Bank of Portugal, Economic and Research Department Working Paper No. 2011192011. (with J. Sousa)

[7] “Can fiscal stimulus boost economic recovery?", Banque de France, Document de Travail No. 3252011. (with L. Agnello)

[6] “Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area”. European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 10502009.

[5] The determinants of public deficit volatility“, European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 10422009. (with L. Agnello)

[4] “Assessing long-term fiscal developments: a new approach”, European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 10322009. (with A. Afonso, L. Agnello and D. Furceri)

[3] “Wealth effects in emerging market economies”. European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 10002009(with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste)

[2] “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy”. European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 9912009. (with A. Afonso)

[1] “Fiscal policy, housing and stock prices”. European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 9902009. (with A. Afonso)

 

Working Papers

[58] “Housing market returns and the consumption-(dis)aggregate wealth ratio: Evidence from U.S. state-level data”, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, Working Paper No. 201942. 2019(with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar)

[57] “The predictability of cay and cayMS for stock and housing returns: A nonparametric causality in quantile test”, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, Working Paper No. 201577. 2015(with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar)

[56] “Testing for asymmetric causality from U.S. equity returns to commodity futures returns", IPAG Business School, Working Paper No. 2014-545. 2014. (with D.K. Nguyen and G.S. Uddin)

[55] “US monetary policy and commodity sector prices", IPAG Business School, Working Paper No. 2014-438. 2014. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)

[54] “China's monetary policy and commodity prices", IPAG Business School, Working Paper No. 2014-298. 2014. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)

[53] “Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach", University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2014; IPAG Business School, Working Paper No. 2014-185. 2014. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)

[52] Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of energy prices to CO2 emission allowance prices”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 5/2014; IPAG Business School, Working Paper No. 2014-082. 2014. (with S. Hammoudeh, Amine Lahiani and D.K. Nguyen)

[51] “What explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?", University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 4/2014; IPAG Business School, Working Paper No. 2014-081. 2014. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)

[50] “Fiscal adjustments and business cycle synchronization”, CESifo Working Paper No. 4505DIW Berlin Working Paper No. 13392013. (with L. Agnello and G.M. Caporale)

[49] “The effects of monetary policy in a small open economy: The case of Portugal”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 27/2012. 2012.

[48] “The skill premium of technological change: Evidence from the US manufacturing sector”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 26/2012. 2012. (with S.K. Mallick)

[47] “Structural breaks and nonlinearity in US and UK public debt”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 25/2012. 2012. (with F. Jawadi)

[46] “Consumption and wealth in the US, the UK and the euro area: A nonlinear investigation”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 24/2012. 2012. (with F. Jawadi)

[45] “Modelling money demand: Further evidence from an international comparison”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 23/2012. 2012. (with F. Jawadi)

[44] “Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 22/2012. 2012. (with F. Jawadi)

[43] “Financial reforms and income inequality”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 21/20122012. (with L. Agnello and S.K. Mallick)

[42] “Adjusting the U.S. fiscal policy for asset prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS framework”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 20/2012. 2012. (with L. Agnello and G. Dufrénot)

[41] “Fiscal adjustments and income inequality: A first assessment”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 19/2012. 2012. (with L. Agnello)

[40] “Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 18/2012. 2012. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)

[39] “What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 17/2012. 2012. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)

[38] “How does fiscal consolidation impact on income inequality?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 34/2011. 2011. (with L. Agnello)

[37] “Are stock and housing returns complements or substitutes? Evidence from OECD countries”, CESifo Working Paper No. 3621DIW Berlin Working Paper No. 1158; Brunel University, Economics and Finance Working Paper No. 11-15; University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 33/2011. 2011. (with G.M. Caporale)

[36] “Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets”, CESifo Working Paper No. 3601DIW Berlin Working Paper No. 1159;  Brunel University, Economics and Finance Working Paper No. 11-14; University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 32/2011. 2011. (with G.M. Caporale)

[35] “Fiscal policy discretion, private spending and crisis episodes”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 31/2011. 2011. (with L. Agnello and D. Furceri)

[34] “How do banking crises impact on income inequality?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 30/2011. 2011. (with L. Agnello)

[33] “How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 24/2011. 2011. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)

[32] “Wealth, labour income, stock returns and government bond yields, and financial stress in the Euro Area”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 22/2011. 2011.

[31] “Asset returns under model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S.”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 21/2011. (with J. Sousa)

[30] "Do windfall gains affect labour supply? Evidence from the European Household Panel", University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 20/2011. 2011. (with U. Sila)

[29] “Fiscal policy in the BRICs”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 19/2011. 2011. (with F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick)

[28] “Monetary policy rules in the BRICS: How important is nonlinearity?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 18/2011. 2011. (with F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick)

[27] “The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 12/2011. 2011(with S.K. Mallick)

[26] “Consumption, wealth, stock and government bond returns: international evidence”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 9/2011; ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 9/2011/DE/UECE. 2011. (with A. Afonso)

[25] Fiscal policy and asset prices", University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 25/2010. 2010(with L. Agnello)

[24] “How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?", University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 26/2010; University of Coimbra, GEMF Working Paper No. 19/2010. 2010. (with V. Castro)

[23] “Collateralizable wealth, asset returns and systemic risk: international evidence”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 15/2010. 2010.

[22] “How do consumption and asset returns react to wealth shocks: evidence from the U.S. and the U.K.”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 14/2010. 2010.

[21] “Time-varying expected returns: evidence from the U.S. and the U.K.”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 10/20102010.

[20] “The consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns: The Euro Area, the UK and the US”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 9/2010. 2010.

[19] “Monetary policy and economic activity in the BRICS”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 27/2009. 2009. (with S.K. Mallick)

[18] “What are the wealth effects of monetary policy?“,University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 26/2009. 2009.

[17] “Fiscal regime shifts in Portugal“, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 25/2009; University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, IREA Working Paper No. 200921; ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 41/2009/DE/UECE. 2009. (with A. Afonso and P. Claeys)

[16] “Fundamentals, financial factors and the dynamics of investment in emerging markets“, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 19/2009. 2009. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste)

[15] “Asset prices, credit and investment in emerging markets“, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 18/2009. 2009(with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste)

[14] “Wealth effects on consumption: evidence from the euro area”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 12/2009. 2009.

[13] The determinants of public deficit volatility“, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 11/2009. 2009. (with L. Agnello)

[12] “Assessing long-term fiscal developments: a new approach”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 7/2009; ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 19/2009/DE/UECE. 2009. (with A. Afonso, L. Agnello and D. Furceri)

[11] “The impact of government spending on the private sector: crowding-out versus crowding-in effects”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2009. 2009. (with D. Furceri)

[10] “Wealth effects in emerging market economies”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 4/2009. 2009(with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste)

[9] “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 3/2009; ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 9/2009/DE/UECE. 2009. (with A. Afonso)

[8] “Assessing long-term fiscal developments: evidence from Portugal”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 1/2009; ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 3/2009/DE/UECE. 2009. (with A. Afonso)

[7] “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 22/2008; ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 56/2008/DE/UECE. 2009. (with A. Afonso)

[6] “Fiscal policy, housing and stock prices”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 21/2008; ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 58/2008/DE/UECE. 2009. (with A. Afonso)

[5] “Expectations, shocks and asset returns”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 29/2007. 2007.

[4] “Wealth shocks and risk aversion”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 28/2007. 2010.

[3] “Consumption, (dis)aggregate wealth, and asset returns”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 9/2005. 2005.

[2] Property of stocks and wealth effects on consumption., University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 2/2003. 2003.

[1] Location, specialization, diversification indicators, and shift-share analysis: an application to the NUTIII of North Region in the period 1986-1998“, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 13/2001. 2001. (with D. Cabral) 

 

Research Grants

[5] 2012 Europlace Institute of Finance (EIF) Grant (€10,000.00) (September 2012).

[4] Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Travel Grant (€1,040.00) (February 2011).

[3] Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC) Grant – RES-165-25-0024 (£254,415.37), (with N. Kiyotaki (Princeton University), C. Julliard (LSE) and A. Michaelides (LSE)): Home Ownership, Housing Collateral and Aggregate Fluctuations (September 2006 - August 2009).

[2] Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Travel Grant (€740.00) (August 2009).

[1] Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) Grant – POCI/EGE/58641/2004 (€36,910.00), (with F. Alexandre (University of Minho), P. Bação (University of Coimbra), J. Driffill (Birkbeck College, University of London) and V. Gabriel (University of Surrey)): Monetary Policy and Wealth Effect on Consumption (August 2005 – July 2008). 

 

Reports

[3] "Macroeconomic performance indicators – Cávado's Valley NUT: a comparative analysis with the major NUT III of the Continent, the Continent and Galiza; The municipalities of Cávado's Valley - a brief diagnosis”, Observatory for the Competitiveness and Life's Quality, Agency for the Regional Development of the Cávado's Valley (ADRVC), September. 2002. (with D. Cabral, L. Ramos and P. Mourão)

[2] “Macroeconomic performance indicators - Cávado's Valley NUT: a comparative analysis with the major NUT III of the Continent, the Continent and Galiza”, Agency for the Regional Development of the Cávado's Valley (ADRVC) and the Ministry of Social Insurance and Labor, September. 2000. (with J. Cadima Ribeiro and D. Cabral)

[1] “Low wages in Portugal”,  NIMA – Applied Microeconomics Research Unit and the Ministry of Social Insurance and Labor, February. 2000. (with A.R. Cardoso, P. Ferreira and V. Castro) 

 

Conferences

[61]  7th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments, ISEG/UL – School of Economics and Management / University of Lisbon, Lisbon (Portugal), 13 September 2019.

[60] 50th Anniversary Conference of the Money, Macro & Finance (MMF) Group, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London (UK), 4-6 September 2019.

[59] 26th International Conference on "Forecasting Financial Markets", Ca’ Foscari University, Venice (Italy), 19-21 June 2019.

[58] Eighteenth Annual Conference of the European Economics and Finance Society (EEFS), University of Genoa, Genoa (Italy), 13-16 June 2019.

[57] Fourth International Workshop on “Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics” (FMND), Paris (France), 31 May-1 June 2019.

[56] Fifth International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Paris (France), 12-14 April 2018.

[55] XII Annual Seminar on Risk, Financial Stability and Banking, Central Bank of Brazil, São Paulo (Brazil), 9-11 August 2017.

[54] Fourth Annual Conference of the Society for Economic Measurement, MIT, Samberg Center, Boston (USA), 26-28 July 2017.

[53] Sixteenth Annual Conference of the European Economics and Finance Society (EEFS), University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana (Slovenia), 22-25 June 2017.

[52] Third International Workshop on "Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics" (FMND), ESSCA Paris Campus, Paris (France), 1-2 June 2017.

[51] Energy and Commodity Finance Conference, ESSEC Business School, Paris (France), 23-24 June 2016.

[50] Fourth International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Paris (France), 10-12 April 2016.

[49] Second Annual Conference of the Society for Economic Measurement, OECD, Paris (France), 22-24 July 2015.

[48] Second International Workshop on "Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics" (FMND), ESSCA Paris Campus, Paris (France), 4-5 June 2015.

[47] Annual Meetings of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin American Econometric Society (LAMES), School of Economics, Business and Accounting at the University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), São Paulo (Brazil), 20-22 November 2014.

[46] Annual Meeting of the Association of Southern European Economic Theorists (ASSET), Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Aix-en-Provence (France), 6-8 November 2014.

[45] Annual Conference of the Society for Economic Measurement, University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, Chicago (USA), 18-20 August 2014.

[44] 14th Finance Meeting of the Brazilian Finance Association, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife (Brazil), 24-26 July 2014. Award of the Brazilian Financial Markets Association (ANBIMA). Category: Scientific Papers [ranked 1st].

[43] 10th BMRC-DEMS Conference on Macro and Financial Economics/Econometrics, Brunel University, London (UK), 28-30 May 2014.

[42] Frontiers of Finance 2014, University of Warwick, Warwick Business School, Coventry (UK), 24-25 April 2014.

[41] Third International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Paris (France), 10-12 April 2014.

[40] Global Finance Conference, American University of Sharjah, Dubai (United Arab Emirates), 31 March - 2 April 2014. Best Paper Award in Investments, Financial Markets and Valuation.

[39] Europlace Institute of Finance Morning Conference, Europlace Institute of Finance, Paris (France), 12 February 2014.

[38] 1st Paris Financial Management Conference, IPAG Business School, Paris (France), 15-17 December 2013.

[37] 13th Finance Meeting of the Brazilian Finance Association, Pontific Catholic University, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), 18-20 July 2013.

[36] 2013 Annual Meeting of the European Financial Management Association, Reading (UK), 26-29 June 2013.

[35] Global Political Economy Network (GPEN)-Centre for Globalization Research (CGR), Queen Mary University of London, London (UK), 24-25 June 2013.

[34] XXXVI Encontro da Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD), Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro (Brasil), 22-25 September 2012. Keynote Speaker.

[33] 7th Portuguese Finance Network, University of Aveiro, Aveiro (Portugal), 5-7 July 2012.

[32] 6th Portuguese Economic Journal Conference, Porto (Portugal), 5-7 July 2012.

[31] UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments in Europe, Lisbon (Portugal), 29 June 2012.

[30] Second International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance, Tunis (Tunisia), 15-17 March 2012.

[29] 38th Eastern Economic Association Annual Conference, Boston (USA), 9-11 March 2012.

[28] 2011 Annual Meeting of the European Financial Management Association, Braga (Portugal), 22-25 June 2011.

[27] 15th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, Rethymno (Greece), 26-28 May 2011.

[26] 2011 Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society, Rennes (France), 28 April-1 May 2011.

[25] 37th Eastern Economic Association Annual Conference, Ramapo College of New Jersey, New York (USA), 25-27 February 2011.

[24] 23rd Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, The University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia), 15-17 December 2010.

[23] Second Emerging Scholars in Banking and Finance Conference, Cass Business School, City University of London, London (UK), 9 December 2010.

[22] Conference on "New Challenges for Public Debt in Advanced Economies", Banque de France and Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA) of the University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg (France), 16-17 September 2010.

[21] 25th Meeting of the European Economic Association, Glasgow (Scotland), 23-26 August 2010.

[20] EuroConference 2010 of the Society for the Study of Emerging Markets, Milas (Turkey), 16-18  July 2010.

[19] International Conference on Economic Modeling – EcoMod 2010, Istanbul (Turkey), 7-10 July 2010.

[18] 6th Portuguese Finance Network, Ponta Delgada (Portugal), 1-3 July 2010.

[17] 4th Portuguese Economic Journal Conference, Faro (Portugal), 25-26 June 2010.

[16] Third Annual Brunel University PhD Conference in Economics and Finance, Brunel University, London (UK), 11 June 2010.

[15] First World Finance Conference, Viana do Castelo (Portugal), 26-28 May 2010.

[14] 2010 Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society, Izmir (Turkey), 8-11 April 2010.

[13] 36th Annual Meeting of the Eastern Economic Association, Philadelphia (USA), 26-28 February 2010.

[12] First International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance, Sousse (Tunisia), 25-27 February 2010.

[11] XVIII International “Tor Vergata” Banking and Finance Conference, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome (Italy), 2-4 December 2009.

[10] Center for International Capital Markets (CICM) Conference 2009, "20 Years of Transition in Central and Eastern Europe: Money, Banking and Financial Markets", London Metropolitan Business School, London (UK), 17-18 September 2009.

[9] The Money Macro and Finance Research Group 41st Annual Conference, Bradford University School of Management, Bradford (UK), 7-9 September 2009.

[8] 24th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA) & 64th European Meeting of the Econometric Society (ESEM), Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, Barcelona (Spain), 23-27 August 2009.

[7] 7th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College, The University of Dublin, Dublin (Ireland), 8-9 June 2009.

[6] 13th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, Rethymno (Greece), 28-30 May 2009.

[5] International Conference "10 Years of the Euro: Adjustment in Capital and Labour Markets", Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 7-8 May 2009.

[4] Royal Economic Society (RES) 2009 Annual Conference, Surrey (UK), 20-22 April 2009.

[3] XVI International “Tor Vergata” Banking and Finance Conference, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome (Italy), 5-7 December 2007. Young Economist – BEST PAPER award.

[2] 12th International Conference in “Computing in Economics and Finance”, Society for Computational Economics, Limassol (Cyprus), 22-24 June 2006.

[1] IV Meeting of Portuguese Language’ Economists, Évora (Portugal), 2-4 October 2001.

 

Seminars / Workshops

[56] University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 19 February 2020.

[55] University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 September 2019.

[54] Bank of Italy, Rome (Italy), 10 April 2019.

[53] National Bank of Belgium, Brussels (Belgium), 3 April 2019.

[52] Lille University, Lille (France), 5 February 2019.

[51] Queen Mary University of London, London (UK), 16 January 2019.

[50] Birmingham University, Birmingham (UK), 6 November 2018.

[49] Loughborough University, Loughborough (UK), 24 October 2018.

[48] University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 July 2018.

[47] Newcastle University, Newcastle (UK), 15 May 2018.

[46] Bank of England, London (UK), 4 May 2018.

[45] European Central Bank, Frankfurt (Germany), 24 April 2018.

[44] King's College London, London (UK), 25 October 2017.

[43] Loughborough University, Loughborough (UK), 16 June 2017.

[42] Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 16 November 2016.

[41] Banque de France, Paris (France), 8 July 2016.

[40] Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 28 June 2016.

[39] Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 28 April 2016.

[38] Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 21 April 2016.

[37] Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 30 March 2016.

[36] Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 23 February 2016.

[35] European Central Bank, Frankfurt (Germany), 19 June 2015.

[34] SOAS University of London, London (UK), 19 March 2015.

[33] Brunel University, London (UK), 12 December 2014.

[32] ESCB Workshop on House Price Modeling for Forecasting and Valuations, European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt (Germany), 28 November 2014.

[31] CEGE/NIPE Research Workshop, Catholic University, Porto (Portugal), 19 September 2014.

[30] PhD program in Economics, University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 18 September 2014.

[29] NIPE Seminar Series, University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 17 September 2014.

[28] IPAG Business School, Paris (France), 10 April 2014.

[27] Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice (Italy), 12 March 2014.

[26] ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon, Lisbon (Portugal), 22 October 2012.

[25] European Investment Bank, Luxembourg (Luxembourg), 26 July 2012.

[24] MFAD Induction, Bank of England, London (UK), 31 May 2012.

[23] MFAD Divisional Meeting, Bank of England, London (UK), 14 December 2011.

[22] Workshop "International Political Economy and Cross-Border Effects", Goodenough College, London (UK), 28 April 2011.

[21] European Central Bank (ECB), Fiscal Policies Division (FIP), Frankfurt (Germany), 18 March 2011.

[20] City University of London, London (UK), 10 March 2011.

[19] University of Birmingham, Birmingham (UK), 18 February 2011.

[18] Brunel University, London (UK), 17 February 2011.

[17] Bank of England, London (UK), 10 January 2011.

[16] University of Southampton, Southampton (UK), 1 December 2009.

[15] NIPE Seminar Series, University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 25 November 2009.

[14] "Internal mini-workshop on fiscal and financial issues", European Central Bank (ECB), Fiscal Policies Division (FIP), Frankfurt (Germany), 11 May 2009.

[13] "Economic Meeting", European Central Bank (ECB), International Policy Analysis Division (IPA), Frankfurt (Germany), 21 April 2009.

[12] NIPE Seminar Series, University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 9 January 2009.

[11] NCB Expert Meeting on “Money demand”, European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt (Germany), 14 November 2008.

[10] NCB Expert Meeting on “Cross-checking based on financial flows”, European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt (Germany), 20 October 2008.

[9] European Central Bank (ECB), International Policy Analysis Division (IPA), Frankfurt (Germany), 14 October 2008.

[8] European Central Bank (ECB), Monetary Policy Stance Division (MSN), Frankfurt (Germany), 13 October 2008.

[7] University of Surrey, Guildford (UK), 31 July 2008.

[6] European Central Bank (ECB), Fiscal Policies Division (FIP), Frankfurt (Germany), 8 July 2008.

[5] University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 27 September 2007.

[4] London School of Economics and Political Science, London (UK), 23 April 2007.

[3] London School of Economics and Political Science, London (UK), 28 November 2005.

[2] University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 9 April 2003.

[1] University of Coimbra, Coimbra (Portugal), 26 March 2003. 

 

Refereeing Activity

African Finance Journal; Annals of Operations Research; Applied Economics; British Journal of Management; Bulletin of Economic Research; Computational Economics; Contemporary Economic Policy; Economic Inquiry; Economic Modelling; Economic Journal; Economica; Economics Bulletin; Economic Systems; Empirical Economics; Energy Economics; Energy Journal; Environment & Planning C: Government and Policy; European Financial Management; European Journal of Political Economy; International Journal of Finance and Economics; International Review of Economics and Finance; International Review of Financial Analysis; International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization; Journal of Economic Growth; Journal of Economic Inequality; Journal of Economic Studies; Journal of Empirical Finance; Journal of Financial Markets; Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Health Economics; Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money; Journal of International Money and Finance; Journal of Labor Research; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Open Economies Review; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Choice; Public Finance Review; Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance; Review of Development Economics; Review of Income and Wealth; Review of International Economics; Scottish Journal of Political Economy; Southern Economic Journal; Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics; Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics; The B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics; The Manchester School.

 

Supervision of PhD Theses

[1] Gilson Manuel Gomes Pina (PhD in Economics, University of Coimbra). (Co-supervisor: Pedro Bação, University of Coimbra) [Viva: 15 April 2016; Final Classification: Pass with Distinction].   

 

Supervision of Master Theses

[3] Luu Thi Hong Nhung (Msc in Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 29 July 2014; Final Classification: 19/20]. 

[2] Suéli Domingues Lopes (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 14 February 2014; Final Classification: 15/20].  

[1] Luís Miguel Vieira do Couto (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 27 June 2012; Final Classification: 18/20]. 

 

Discussion of Theses

[11] Luu Thi Hong Nhung (Msc in Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 29 July 2014]. 

[10] Suéli Domingues Lopes (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 14 February 2014].

[9] Carlos Filipe Coelho Peixoto (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 14 February 2014].

[8] Celina Leal dos Santos (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 3 May 2013].

[7] Jorge Miguel da Silva Mariz (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 20 December 2012].

[6] Vanessa Cruz (MSc in Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 20 December 2012].

[5] Michel Pereira Pinto (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 4 December 2012].

[4] Luís Miguel Vieira do Couto (MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 27 June 2012].

[3] Nadia Benbouzid (PhD in Economics – Upgrade, Queen Mary University of London). [Viva: 26 October 2011]. 

[2] Miguel Viegas (PhD in Economics, Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto). [Viva: 20 December 2010].

[1] Fernanda Manuel Taveira Veiga (MSc in Economics, University of Minho). [Viva: 11 December 2009].

 

Former Students/Tutees

[10] Igor Cesarec (PhD in Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science).

[9] Jiaming Cen (PhD in Economics, Duke University).

[8] David Gonzalez (PhD in Economics, University of Carolina at Chapel Hill).

[7] Hui Fang Lee (PhD in Economics, Princeton University).

[6] Clara Romero (PhD in Economics, University of Toulouse).

[5] Qingyun Luo (MSc in Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science).

[4] Valter Martins (MSc in Economics, University of Cork).

[3] Anchit Sood (MSc in Public Policy, University of Chicago).

[2] Nan Thanapoomikul (MSc in Economics, University of Columbia).

[1] Yang Wen (MSc in Economics, Oxford University). 

 

Scientific Affiliations

American Economic Association (AEA); American Finance Association (AFA); American Risk Insurance Association (ARIA); Econometric Society (ES); European Economic Association (EEA); Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA); Royal Economic Society (RES); Society of Computational Economics (SCA); Society for the Study of Emerging Markets (SSEM); Western Economic Association (WEA)

 

Other Affiliations

LSE Alumni Association, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).

 

Summer Schools

[4] "Quantitative Methods in Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis", taught by Professor Ellen McGrattan (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Minnesota) and organized by Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 2-4 July 2007.

[3] "Globalization and Financial Markets”, Barcelona Macroeconomics Summer School – BMSS 2005 – taught by Professor Jaume Ventura (University of Pompeu Fabra) and organized by Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI), University of Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona (Spain) 4-8 July 2005.

[2] "Methods for Estimating Dynamic General Equilibrium Models”, Barcelona Macroeconomics Summer School – BMSS 2004 – taught by Professor Fabio Canova (University of Pompeu Fabra) and organized by Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI), University of Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona (Spain), 5-9 July 2004.

[1] "Quantitative Techniques", taught by Professor Paul Schweinzer (Birkbeck College, University of London) and organized by Applied Micreconomics Research Unit (NIMA) and Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 8-12 July 2002.

 

Other Meetings

[7] Participation on the Regional Conference of the Observatory for the Employment and Professional Formation, Hotel Ipanema, Porto (Portugal), 26 June 2003, having presented the paper "Some Caracterizing Indicators of the North Region". (with Professor Dolores Cabral).

[6] Participation on the presentation session of the Undergraduate course in Economics of the University of Minho to D. Maria II Secondary School, Braga (Portugal), 13 March 2003. 

[5] Participation on the presentation session of the School of Economics and Management of the University of Minho to Penafiel's Secundary School No. 1, Braga (Portugal), 24 February 2003.

[4] Presentation of the First Report of the Observatory for the Competitiveness and Life's Quality, sponsored by Agency for the Regional Development of the Cávado's Valley (ADRVC), AIMINHO, 23 September 2002, entitled "Macroeconomic performance indicators – Cávado's Valley NUT: a comparative analysis with the major NUT III of the Continent, the Continent and Galiza; The municipalities of Cávado's Valley - a brief diagnosis".

[3] Participation of the Fifth Anniversary of NAECUM - Association of Students of Economics of the University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 8 May 2002, having presented several statistical and bibliographical databases and internet sites.

[2] Participation on the 4th Meeting of Portuguese Language Economists, University of Évora, 1-4 October 2001, having presented the paper "Indicators of localization, specialization, and diversification and shift-share analysis: an application to the NUTIII of North Region in the period 1986-1998".

[1] Participation on the conference organized by the Agency for the Regional Development of the Cávado's Valley (ADRVC), IDITE Minho, 24 November 2000, having presented the report “Indicators of macroeconomic performance - Cávado's Valley NUT : a comparative analysis with the major NUT III of Continent, the Continent and Galiza”

 

 

 

ADMINISTRATIVE AND MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES

[9] 2014-present: Research contributor of the Systemic Risk Hub (http://www.systemic-risk-hub.org).

[8] 2014-2015: Member of the Board of Directors (PhD in Economics, University of Minho).

[7] 2014: Organizer of the 11th Summer School of the Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), “Empirical Financial Economics”, taught by Professor Stephen Brown (NYU).

[6] 2010-2011: Member of the Board of Directors, MSc in Economics, University of Minho.

[5] 2009-2011: Member of the Board of Directors, MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho.

[4] 2008-present: Member of the Council, Department of Economics, University of Minho.

[3] 2008: Member of the team responsible for the creation and development of the MSc in Monetary, Banking and Financial Economics, University of Minho.

[2] 2001-2002: Member of the group responsible for the publication of the Information Bulletin, Department of Economics, University of Minho.

[1] 2001-2002: Delegate of the Assistants and Teaching Assistants of Department of Economics, University of Minho.

 

 

 

AWARDS

[13] 2019 EEG-UMinho Research Award.

[12] Nominated for the Euronext Lisbon Awards 2015. Category: Best Scientific Research on Portuguese Capital Markets - PhD Thesis and Published Articles.

[11] 14th Finance Meeting of the Brazilian Finance Association. Award of the Brazilian Financial Markets Association (ANBIMA) 2014. Category: Scientific Papers [ranked 1st].

[10] 2014 Global Finance Conference. Best Paper Award in Investments, Financial Markets and Valuation.

[9] Listed in the 2010 Edition of Marquis Who's Who in World. 

[8] XVI International “Tor Vergata” Conference on Banking and Finance. Young Economist – BEST PAPER award 2008.

[7] Tutorial Fellowship, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2006-2007.

[6] PhD Scholarship, Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, 2003-2007.

[5] “Fundação Engenheiro António de Almeida”, Foundation “Engenheiro António de Almeida”, best student of the BSc in Economics, University of Minho, 2000.

[4] Merit Award, Portuguese Ministry of Education, best student of the BSc in Economics, University of Minho, 2000.

[3] Merit Award, University of Minho, best student of the BSc in Economics, University of Minho, 1999.

[2] Merit Award, University of Minho, best student of the BSc in Economics, University of Minho, 1998.

[1] Merit Award, University of Minho, best student of the BSc in Economics, University of Minho, 1997.

 

 

 

KNOWLEDGE OF ECONOMETRIC/STATISTICAL SOFTWARE

R, Stata, Gauss, E-Views, Matlab, PcGive and Rats

 

 

 

LANGUAGES

Portuguese (native), English (fluent), Italian (fluent), Spanish (fluent) and French (fair). 

 

 

 

OTHER

Sports: soccer, surf and tennis.

Hobbies: collection of stamps, karting and traveling.

 

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