"First
they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you
win." -Mahatma Gandhi
RESEARCH
RESEARCH INTERESTS
Research interests: Empirical Finance and Asset
Pricing Models, International Finance, Corporate Finance, Macroeconomics,
Housing Economics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Emerging Market Economies,
Macro-Econometrics and Quantitative Methods, Economic Modeling, Bayesian Model
Averaging and Bayesian Econometrics, Energy
Economics, Development and Growth, Political Economy, and Regional and
Urban Economics.
ORCID: 0000-0002-8279-5753. [https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8279-5753?lang=en]
Scopus Author ID: Citations: 2,307; h-index: 28 [https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=35270013700]
Researcher ID:
F-8013-2010; Citations: 1,961; h-index: 26. [http://www.researcherid.com/rid/F-8013-2010]
Google Scholar:
Citations: 5,373; h-index: 37; i10-index: 94.
[http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6kqFx8oAAAAJ]
Ideas RePEc:
Citations: 2,049; h-index: 27; i10-index: 54.
[http://ideas.repec.org/e/pso60.html]
(Ranked #6 among
'authors in Portugal', top 1%). [http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.portugal.html#authors]
(Ranked #773 among
'Top 10% authors (Last 10 Years Publications)'). [https://ideas.repec.org/top/top.person.all10.html]
SSRN: [http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=475556]
CiênciaVitae: [https://www.cienciavitae.pt/portal/181A-7703-A069].
PhD
"Consumption,
Housing and Financial Wealth, Asset Returns, and Monetary Policy", Thesis
submitted to the Department of Economics of the London School of
Economics and Political Science (LSE) for the degree of Doctor of
Philosophy (PhD). 2008.
MASTER
"Stock Market,
Wealth and Consumption", Thesis submitted to the Department of Economics
of the University of Minho for the degree of Master (MPhil) of
Economic Policy. 2002.
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
[82] "International
monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets: Dynamic and spillover effects". European Journal of Finance,
2024, 30(16), 1855-1875. (with A.H. Elsayed)
[ISI JCR Impact Factor (2023): 2.2]
[81] “Making sense of uncertainty: The case of the
Scandinavian banking sector”. International Journal of
Finance & Economics, 2024, 29(4), 3877-3903. (with V. Forsström, K. Lind, G.S. Uddin
and R. Jayasekera) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2023): 2.8]
[80]
“China's monetary
policy framework and global commodity prices”. Energy Economics,
2024,
138, 107767. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
[ISI JCR Impact Factor (2023): 13.6].
[79]
“Oil
shocks and financial stability in MENA countries”. Resources Policy, 2024, 89,
104653. (with A.H. Elsayed and K. Sohag) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2022): 10.2].
[78] "Bitcoin market networks and cyberattacks",
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and
its Applications, 2023,
630, 129165. (with M.
Costantini, A. Maaitah and T. Mishra)
[ISI JCR Impact Factor (2022): 3.3]
[77] “A quest
between fiscal and market discipline”. Economic Modelling, 2023, 119,
106119. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
[ISI JCR Impact Factor (2022): 4.7]
[76]
“Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context:
Why "too" low (high) for "so" long?”. Empirical Economics,
2023, 64, 539-565. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2022): 3.2]
[75] "COVID-19 news and US equity market interactions: An
inspection through econometric and machine learning lens". Annals
of Operations Research,
2022, forthcoming. (with R.K. Jana, I. Ghosh, F. Jawadi and G. Salah Uddin)
[ISI JCR Impact Factor (2023): 4.4]
[74] "Bank credit risk and macro-prudential policies:
Role of counter-cyclical capital buffer". Journal of Financial Stability,
2022, 63, 101084. (with N. Benbouzid, A. Kumar, S.K. Mallick and A. Stojanovic)
[ISI JCR Impact Factor (2021): 3.554]
[73] “On the
international co-movement of natural interest rates”. Journal of International
Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 2022, 80, 101610. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2021): 4.217]
[72] "Do pandemic, trade policy and world uncertainties
affect oil price returns?", Resources Policy, 2022, 77,
102705. (with S. Hammoudeh, G. Salah Uddin, C. Wadström and R. Zaman Sharmi) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2020): 5.634]
[71] "The dual shocks of the COVID-19 and the oil price collapse:
A spark or a setback for the circular economy?", Energy Economics, 2022,
109, 105913. (with Y. Errami, S. Hammoudeh, K. Kasmaoui and R. Selmi) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2020): 7.042]
[70] “What
uncertainty does to euro area sovereign
bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality”, Journal of International Money
and Finance, 2022, 122, 102574. (with M. Costantini) [ISI JCR Impact
Factor (2020): 2.731]
[69] “Inflation synchronization among the G7 and China: The
important role of oil inflation”, Energy Economics, 2021, 100,
105332. (with A.H. Elsayed and S. Hammoudeh) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2020): 7.042]
[68] “External
debt composition and domestic credit cycles”, Journal
of International Money and Finance, 2021,
115, 102377. (with S. Avdjiev and S. Binder) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2020): 2.731]
[67] "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle
phases", Journal
of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2021, 182, 512-526. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact
Factor (2020): 1.635]
[66] “What can fifty-two collateralizable wealth measures tell
us about future housing market returns? Evidence from U.S. state-level data”, Journal of Real Estate Finance
and Economics, 2021,
62, 81-107. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2020): 1.479]
[65] “Linking U.S. state-level housing market returns and the
consumption-(dis)aggregate wealth ratio”, International Review of Economics and
Finance, 2021, 71,
779-810. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2020): 2.522]
[64] "The housing cycle: What role for mortgage market
development and housing finance?", Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2020, 61, 607-670. (with L. Agnello
and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact
Factor (2019): 0.967]
[63] “Unconventional
monetary reaction functions: Evidence from the U.S.”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2020, 24(4), 20180088. (with L.
Agnello, V. Castro, F. Jawadi and G. Dufrénot) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2019): 0.533]
[62] “Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and
energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycles”, Energy
Economics, 2020, 90,
104862. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 5.203]
[61] “Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread
and flight to quality”, European Financial Management, 2020, 26(3), 778-807. (with M. Costantini) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 1.470]
[60] “How does
monetary policy respond to the dynamics of the shadow banking sector?”,
International Journal of
Finance and Economics,
2020, 25(2), 228-247. (with L.
Agnello, V. Castro and F. Jawadi) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2019): 0.943]
[59]
“U.S. equity and commodity futures markets: hedging or
financialization?”, Energy
Economics, 2020, 86, 104660. (joint with D.K. Nguyen, A.
Şensoy and G.S. Uddin) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2019): 5.302]
[58]
“A
competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations”, Journal of
International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2019, 63, 101148. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2018): 1.719]
[57] “Can the consumption-wealth ratio predict housing returns?
Evidence from OECD countries”, Real Estate Economics, 2019, 47(4), 935-956. (with G.M.
Caporale and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2018): 1.103]
[56] “Asset
returns under model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area,
the U.K. and the U.S.”, Computational
Economics, 2019, 54(1), 139-176. (with
J. Sousa) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2018): 1.038]
[55] "The
legacy and the tyranny of time: Exit and re-entry of sovereigns to
international capital markets", Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking, 2018, 50(8), 1969-1994.
(with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 1.470]
[54] “Economic
activity, credit market conditions and the housing market cycle”, Macroeconomic
Dynamics, 2018, 22(7), 1769-1789. (with L. Agnello
and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.723]
[53] “Wealth-to-income ratio and stock market movements:
Evidence from a nonparametric causality test”, International
Review of Finance, 2018, 18(3), 495-506. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E.
Wohar) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.633]
[52] “Do IMF
fiscal forecasts add value?”, Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 37, 650-665. (with Z. An,
J.T. Jalles and P. Loungani)
[ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.934]
[51] “The impact of fiscal consolidation on human development”, Journal of International
Development, 2018, 30(3), 399-429. (with
L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2017): 0.863]
[50] “Financial
markets' shutdown and re-access”, Economic
Inquiry, 2018,
56(1), 562-571. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 1.031]
[49] “A forensic perspective of the determinants of banks’ CDS
spreads”, Journal
of Financial Stability, 2017,
33, 60-70. (with N. Benbouzid and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2016): 1.946]
[48] “Predicting
risk premium under changes in the conditional distribution of stock returns”, Journal of
International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2017, 50,
204-218. (with J. Sousa) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 1.379]
[47] “On
the macroeconomic impact and the wealth effects of unconventional monetary
policy”, Macroeconomic
Dynamics, 2017, 21(5), 1189-1204. (with F. Jawadi
and R. Traverso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 0.718]
[46] “The skill premium effect of technological change:
Evidence from the US manufacturing sector”, International
Labour Review, 2017, 155(1), 113-131. (with
S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 0.643]
[45] “Do country-level financial
structures explain bank-level CDS spreads?”, Journal of
International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2017,
48, 135-145. (with N. Benbouzid and S.K. Mallick) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2016): 1.379]
[44] “Income inequality, fiscal stimuli
and political (in)stability”, International Tax and Public
Finance, 2017, 24(3), 484-511. (with L. Agnello,
V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 0.624]
[43] “The predictability of cay and cayMS for stock and housing
returns: A nonparametric causality in quantile test“, International
Review of Economics and Finance, 2017, 48, 269-279. (with M. Balcilar, R.
Gupta and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 1.261]
[42] “Spillovers from the oil market to the housing
market cycle“, Energy Economics, 2017, 61,
209-220. (with L. Agnello,
L., V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2016): 3.199]
[41] ”Fiscal and monetary policies in the BRICs: A Panel VAR
approach”, Economic
Modelling, 2016,
58, 535-542. (with
F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2015): 0.997]
[40] “National
fiscal consolidations and regional inequality in Europe”, Cambridge
Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2016, 9(1),
59-80. (with L. Agnello and G. Fazio) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2015): 2.111]
Media mentions: The Economist, 2016, October 29th
– November 4th, p.22.
[39] “Predicting
asset returns in the BRICs: The role of macroeconomic and
fundamental predictors", International
Review of Economics and Finance, 2016, 41, 122-143. (with
A. Vivian and M.E. Wohar) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2015): 1.704]
[38] ”Booms,
busts and normal times in the housing market", Journal
of Business& Economic Statistics, 2015,
33(1), 25-45. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 2.241]
[37] “US monetary policy and commodity sector prices", Journal
of International Money and Finance, 2015, 57, 61-85. (with
S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen) [ISI JCR Impact
Factor (2014): 2.117]
[36] "Is
fiscal fatigue a threat to consolidation programmes?", Environment
& Planning C: Government & Policy, 2015, 33(4),
765-779. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 1.535]
[35] “Can
re-regulation of the financial sector strike back public debt?", Economic
Modelling, 2015, 51, 159-171. (with L.
Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.827]
[34] ”An
empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through to CO2 emission prices”, Energy
Economics, 2015, 49, 149-156. (with S. Hammoudeh,
A. Lahiani and D.K. Nguyen) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2014): 2.708]
[33] ”What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?", European
Journal of Political Economy, 2015, 37, 129-145. (with
L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2014): 1.468]
[32] “Linking
wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields", European
Journal of Finance, 2015, 21(10/11), 806-825. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.750]
[31] ”Fiscal
consolidation and financial reforms”, Applied
Economics, 2015, 47(34-35), 3740-3755. (with L.
Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.613]
[30] ”Consumption
growth, preference for smoothing, changes in expectations and risk premium”, Quarterly
Review of Economics and Finance, 2015, 56,
80-97. (with M.J. Rocha Armada and M.E. Wohar)
[29] “What
is the impact of wealth shocks on asset allocation?”, Quantitative
Finance, 2015, 15(3), 493-508. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.653]
[28] “Testing
for asymmetric causality between U.S. equity returns and commodity futures
returns”, Finance Research Letters, 2015,
12, 38-47. (with D.K. Nguyen and G.S. Uddin) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.646] [Top 25 Hottest Articles]
[27] “Nonlinear
effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and
Spain”, Economic Modelling, 2015, 44,
358-362. (with L. Agnello and G. Dufrénot) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2014): 0.827]
[26] “How
does fiscal consolidation impact on income inequality?”, Review
of Income and Wealth, 2014, 60(4), 702-726. (with
L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2013): 0.74]
[25] ”What
explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?", Energy
Economics, 2014, 46, 122-135. (with S. Hammoudeh
and D.K. Nguyen) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2013): 2.58]
[24] ”Fiscal
adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment", Economics
Letters, 2014, 124(2), 231-235. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro
and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2013): 0.457]
[23] "Energy
prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach", Energy
Policy, 2014, 70, 201-206. (with S.
Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2013): 2.696]
[22] “Nonlinear
monetary policy reaction functions in large emerging economies: The case of
Brazil and China”, Applied Economics, 2014,
46(9), 973-984. (with F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.518]
[21] “The
effects of monetary policy in a small open economy: The case of Portugal”, Applied
Economics, 2014, 46(2), 240-251. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.518]
[20] ”Using
time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust
US fiscal policy for asset prices”, Economic Modelling, 2013,
34, 25-36. (with L. Agnello and G. Dufrénot) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.557]
[19] “How
best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private
spending”, Economic Modelling, 2013,
34, 15-24. (with L. Agnello and D. Furceri) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2012): 0.557]
[18] "Political,
institutional and economic factors underlying deficit volatility", Review
of International Economics, 2013, 21(4), 719-732. (with
L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2012): 0.708]
[17] “What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?”, Journal
of International Money and Finance, 2013, 37, 113-134. (with
L. Agnello and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2012): 0.858]
[16] “The
real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone”, International
Review of Financial Analysis, 2013, 30, 1-17. Lead
article. (with S.K. Mallick)
[15] “Money
demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of
nonlinearity", Economic Modelling, 2013, 32(1),
507-515. (with F. Jawadi) [ISI JCR
Impact Factor (2012): 0.557]
[14] “Real
effects of monetary policy in large emerging economies”, Macroeconomic
Dynamics, 2012, 16(S2), 190-212. (with
S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2011): 0.452]
[13] “How
does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?”, Journal
of Macroeconomics, 2012, 34(3), 874-890. (with L. Agnello
and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.496]
[12] “Financial reforms and income
inequality“, Economics Letters, 2012,
116(3), 583-587. (with L. Agnello and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.447]
[11] “Investment in emerging market
economies“, Empirical Economics, 2012,
43(1), 97-119. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.597]
[10] “Wealth effects in emerging
market economies”, International Review of Economics and
Finance, 2012, 24(2), 155-166. (with T. Peltonen and I.
Vansteenkiste) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.927]
[9] “How do central banks react to
wealth composition and asset prices?", Economic
Modelling, 2012, 29(3), 641-653. (with V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2011): 0.701]
[8] “The
macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy”, Applied
Economics, 2012, 44(34), 4439-4454. (with A. Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.459] [Most
read papers
in 2015; 4,583 views; 1,126 downloads]
[7] “Assessing long-term fiscal developments: a new approach”, Journal
of International Money and Finance, 2011, 30(1), 130-146.
(with A. Afonso, L. Agnello and D. Furceri) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.836]
[6] “What are the effects of fiscal
policy on asset markets?“, Economic Modelling, 2011,
28(4), 1871-1890. (with A. Afonso) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.601]
[5] “The impact of government spending on the private sector:
crowding-out versus crowding-in effects”, Kyklos, 2011,
64(4), 516-533. Lead article. (with D. Furceri) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 1.127]
[4] “Fundamentals, financial factors
and the dynamics of investment in emerging markets“, Emerging
Markets Finance and Trade, 2011, 47(03S2), 88-105.
(with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.444]
[3] “Building empirical proxies that capture
time-variation in expected returns using a VAR approach”, Applied
Financial Economics, 2011, 21(3), 147-163.
[2] “Consumption, (dis)aggregate wealth
and asset returns“, Journal of Empirical Finance, 2010,
17(4), 606-622. [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2010): 0.807]
[1] “Housing wealth, financial wealth,
money demand and policy rule: evidence from the euro area“, North
American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2010, 21(1),
88-105.
OTHER
PUBLICATIONS
[37] "Os 20 anos do euro: O problema das lentes a “preto
e zero”". Crítica Económica e
Social, 2019, 20 (November-December), 19-24. (with
R. Cabral).
Republished from: Público, 2019, October
23rd.
[36] “Systemic
financial crises and the housing market cycle” Applied
Economics Letters, 2018, 25(10), 724-729. (with L. Agnello
and V. Castro) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2017): 0.504]
[35] “How do fiscal consolidation and fiscal stimuli impact on
the synchronization of business cycles?”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 2017, 69(4), 309-329. (with L. Agnello
and G.M. Caporale) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2016): 0.358]
[34] “Assessing
financial and housing wealth effects through the lens of a nonlinear
framework“, Research in
International Business and Finance, 2017, 39(B), 840-850. (with
F. Jawadi and R. Soparnot)
[33] “Financial
stress and sovereign debt composition”, Applied
Economics Letters, 2016, 23(9), 678-683. (with L. Agnello,
V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact
Factor (2015): 0.378]
[32] “Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns:
Evidence from emerging markets”, Research in
International Business and Finance, 2016, 36,
562-578. (with G.M. Caporale)
[31] ”Do debt crises boost financial reforms?", Applied
Economics Letters, 2015, 22(5), 356-360. (with L. Agnello,
V. Castro and J. Jalles) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2014): 0.303]
[30] ”Modelling the relationship between
consumption and weatlh in the US, the UK and the euro area", Revue
d'Economie Politique, 2014, 124(4), 639-652. (with F.
Jawadi) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.145]
[29] “Fiscal policy in the BRICs”, Studies
in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2014, 18(2),
201-215. (with F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.276]
[28] "The determinants of the volatility
of fiscal policy discretion", Fiscal
Studies, 2014, 35(1), 91-115. (with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2013): 0.319]
[27] "Windfall gains and labour supply:
Evidence from the European Household Panel", IZA
Journal of Labor Economics, 2014, 3(1), 1-27. (with U.
Sila)
[26] “Wealth, asset portfolio, money demand
and policy rule”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 2014, 66(1),
95-111. [ISI JCR (Impact Factor (2013): 0.333]
[25] “Commodity prices, inflationary pressures,
and monetary policy: Evidence from BRICS economies”, Open
Economies Review, 2013, 24(4), 677-694. (with
S.K. Mallick) [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2012): 0.404]
[24] “Modelling money demand: Further evidence from an
international comparison”, Applied Economics
Letters, 2013, 20(11), 1052-1055. (with F. Jawadi) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.295]
[23] “Fiscal policy
and asset prices", Bulletin of Economic
Research, 2013,
65(2), 154-177. (with L. Agnello) [ISI JCR
Impact Factor (2012): 0.289]
[22] ”Discretionary government consumption,
private domestic demand, and crisis episodes”, Open
Economies Review, 2013,
24(1), 79-100. (with L. Agnello and D. Furceri) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.404]
[21] “Structural breaks and nonlinearity in US and UK public
debt", Applied Economics Letters, 2013,
20(7), 653-657. (with F. Jawadi) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2012): 0.295]
[20] “Fiscal adjustments and income inequality: A first
assessment”, Applied Economics Letters, 2012,
19(16), 1627-1632. (with L. Agnello) [ISI
JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.226]
[19] “How do banking crises impact on income inequality?”, Applied
Economics Letters, 2012, 19(15), 1425-1429. (with L.
Agnello) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.226]
[18] “Wealth-to-income ratio, government bond yields and
financial stress in the Euro Area”, Applied
Economics Letters, 2012, 19(11), 1085-1088. [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2011): 0.226]
[17] “Wealth-to-income ratio and stock returns: Evidence from
the Euro Area”, Applied Economics Letters, 2012,
19(7), 619-622. [ISI JCR Impact Factor
(2011): 0.226]
[16] “Time-varying expected returns: evidence from the U.S.
and the U.K.”, Applied Economics Letters, 2012,
19(5), 413-416. [ISI JCR Impact
Factor (2011): 0.226]
[15] “Consumption, wealth, stock and
government bond returns: international evidence”, The
Manchester School, 2011, 79(6), 1294-1332. (with
A. Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.333]
[14] “Fiscal
regime shifts in Portugal“, Portuguese Economic
Journal, 2011, 10(2), 83-108. (with A. Afonso and
P. Claeys) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.25]
[13] “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal
policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis”, Portuguese
Economic Journal, 2011, 10(1), 61-82. (with A.
Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact Factor (2010): 0.25]
[12] “Assessing long-term fiscal
developments: evidence from Portugal”, Applied
Economics Letters, 2011, 18, 1-5. Lead article.
(with A. Afonso) [ISI JCR Impact
Factor (2010): 0.245]
[11] “Can fiscal policy stimulus boost
economic recovery?”, Revue Économique, 2011,
62(6), 1045-1066. (with L. Agnello)
[10] “Does government spending crowd-out
private consumption and investment? Theory and some empirical evidence”, World
Economics, 2011, 12(4), 153-170. (with D.
Furceri)
[9] “The
consumption-wealth ratio and asset returns: The Euro Area, the UK and the US”, Journal
of Money, Investment and Banking, 2010, 16,
12-28.
[8] “Wealth effects on consumption: evidence
from the euro area”, Banks and Bank Systems, 2010, 5(2),
78-87.
[7] “How do consumption and asset returns
react to wealth shocks: evidence from the U.S. and the U.K.”, The
Empirical Economics Letters, 2010, 9(5), 515-522.
[6] “Financial wealth, housing wealth, and
consumption“, International Research
Journal of Finance and Economics, 2008, 19, 167-191.
[5] “Some
employment indicators of the North of Portugal“, Eco Revista
del Eje Atlântico, 2003, No. 147, August, A Coruña, 43.
[4] “Demographical
dynamics of the North of Portugal and Galiza: a comparative perspective“, Eco
Revista del Eje Atlântico, 2003, No. 142, March, A Coruña, 29.
[3] “Economic
performance indicators: a synthesis“, Cadernos de
Estudos Municipais, 2002, No. 13, June, University of Minho, 117-132.
(with J. Cadima Ribeiro and D. Cabral)
[2] “Profile
of the low-wages worker and company in Portugal“, Economia, 2000,
Vol. XXIV, January-May-October, Portuguese Catholic University, Lisbon,
53-66. (with A.R. Cardoso, V. Castro and P.
Ferreira)
[1] “Municipal
development dynamics in the Cávado's Valley - A reflection from some employment
indicators“, Cadernos de Estudos Municipais, 1999,
No. 11-12, June-December, University of Minho, 243-253.
(with D. Cabral)
BOOK CHAPTERS
[6] “How accurate are private sector
fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Great Recession”, In: Proceedings
of the 21st Federal Forecasters Conference, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, 4 September, 2015, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. (with
Z. An, J.T. Jalles and P. Loungani)
[5] “The impact of income inequality and fiscal stimuli on
political (in)stability”, In: Beyond the austerity dispute:
New priorities for fiscal policy, 17th Workshop on Public Finance organised by
Banca d'Italia in Perugia from 9-11 April, 2015, Banca d'Italia, Perugia, Italy. (with
L. Agnello, V. Castro and J.T. Jalles)
[4] “Fiscal policy and asset price cycles:
Evidence from four European countries”, In: Fiscal Policy and
Macroeconomic Imbalances, 15th
Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia from 4-6
April, 2013, Banca d'Italia, Perugia, Italy. (with L.
Agnello and G. Dufrénot)
[3] “Can the wealth-to-income ratio be a
useful predictor in Alternative Finance? Evidence from the housing risk
premium”, In: Barnett, W.A.;
Jawadi, F. (Eds.), Recent Developments in Alternative Finance:
Empirical Assessments and Economic Implications, International Symposia in
Economic Theory and Econometrics, 2012, 22, 67-79, Emerald Group Publishing, Bingley, UK. (with
Manuel João Rocha Armada)
[2] “Collateralizable wealth, asset returns
and systemic risk: international evidence”, In: Barnett, W.A.; Jawadi, F.
(Eds.), Nonlinear Modeling of Economic and Financial Time-Series, International
Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, 2010, 20,
1-27, Emerald Group Publishing, London, UK. Lead Chapter.
[1] “Wealth
effects on consumption“. In: Boskins, A.P. (Ed.), Consumer
Economics: New Research, Nova Science Publishers, New
York, 2008, 7-38. Lead article.
POLICY PAPERS
[20] "The
benevolence of time, sound macroeconomic environment and governance quality on
the duration of sovereign ratings phases", European
Stability Mechanism, ESM Working Paper No. 34. [pdf]. 2019. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
[19] "Lessons from the last euro area capital flows boom-bust
cycle", European Stability Mechanism, ESM Discussion Paper No. 3. In:
ESM (Ed.), Cross-border capital flows and
capital markets union: Quo vadis Europe? European Stability Mechanism
(ESM): Luxembourg, 5-18. [pdf]. 2018. (with S. Armendariz
and A. Gavilán)
[18] “External debt
composition and domestic credit cycles”, European
Stability Mechanism, ESM Working Paper No. 28. [pdf]. 2018. (with S.
Avdjiev and S. Binder)
[17] “Does exchange
rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The
implications of alternative types of bond financing”, European Stability Mechanism, ESM Working Paper No. 26. [pdf] 2018. (with J.M.
Serena)
[16] “Assessing fiscal policy stance through
the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles”, Bank for
International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 638. [pdf] 2017. (with
E. Alberola-Ila)
[15] “External debt composition and domestic
credit cycles”, Bank
for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 627. [pdf] 2017. (with
S. Avdjiev and S. Binder)
[14] “Repo market functioning”, Bank
for International Settlements, CGFS Papers, 2017, 59,
1-65. [pdf] Report prepared by a Study Group
established by the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS).
[13] “Does exchange rate depreciation have
contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of
alternative types of bond financing”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper
No. 624.
[pdf] 2017. (with J.M. Serena)
[12] “Inflation expectations and monetary
policy", In: Bank for International Settlements, Ed., Inflation
mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, Bank for
International Settlements, BIS Papers, 2016, 89,
41-67. [pdf] (with
J. Yetman)
[11] “Asset returns under model
uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S.”, European
Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 1575. [pdf] 2013.
(with J. Sousa)
[10] “How does fiscal
consolidation impact on income inequality?”, Banque de France,
Document de Travail No. 382. [pdf] 2011. (with L. Agnello)
Media mentions: The Economist, Blog "Free
Exchange", 2011, December
7th;
IMF Fiscal Monitor, October
2012;
Calgary Real Estate,
2011, December
20th;
The Huffington Post,
2011, November
29th;
Prakash Loungani's
Blog, 2011, November
29th;
PoliEcon’s Blog, 2011, November 30th.
[9] “Fiscal policy
discretion, private spending and crisis episodes”, Banque de France,
Document de Travail No. 354. [pdf] 2011. (with L.
Agnello and D. Furceri)
[8] “Asset returns
under model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the
U.S.”, Central Bank of Portugal, Economic and Research Department
Working Paper No. 201119. [pdf] 2011. (with J.
Sousa)
[7] “Can fiscal stimulus
boost economic recovery?", Banque de France,
Document de Travail No. 325. [pdf] 2011. (with L.
Agnello)
[6] “Wealth effects on
consumption: evidence from the euro area”. European Central Bank,
ECB Working Paper No. 1050. [pdf] 2009.
Media mentions: The Economist, Blog "Free
Exchange", 2009, August
19th.
[5] “The determinants of
public deficit volatility“, European Central Bank,
ECB Working Paper No. 1042. [pdf] 2009. (with L. Agnello)
[4] “Assessing long-term
fiscal developments: a new approach”, European Central Bank, ECB
Working Paper No. 1032.
[pdf] 2009. (with
A. Afonso, L. Agnello and D. Furceri)
[3] “Wealth effects in
emerging market economies”. European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper
No. 1000. [pdf] 2009. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste)
[2] “The macroeconomic
effects of fiscal policy”. European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper
No. 991.
[pdf] 2009. (with A. Afonso)
[1] “Fiscal policy, housing
and stock prices”. European Central Bank, ECB Working Paper No. 990. [pdf] 2009. (with A. Afonso)
WORKING PAPERS
[58] “Housing market returns
and the consumption-(dis)aggregate wealth ratio: Evidence from U.S. state-level
data”,
University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, Working Paper No.
201942. [pdf] 2019. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E.
Wohar)
[57] “The predictability of
cay and cayMS for stock and housing returns: A nonparametric causality in
quantile test”,
University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, Working Paper No.
201577. [pdf] 2015. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E.
Wohar)
[56] “Testing for asymmetric
causality from U.S. equity returns to commodity futures returns", IPAG Business School,
Working Paper No. 2014-545. [pdf] 2014. (with D.K.
Nguyen and G.S. Uddin)
[55] “US monetary policy and
commodity sector prices",
IPAG Business School, Working Paper No. 2014-438. [pdf] 2014. (with S.
Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
[54] “China's monetary policy
and commodity prices",
IPAG Business School, Working Paper No. 2014-298. [pdf] 2014. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
[53] “Energy prices and CO2
emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach", University of Minho,
NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2014 [pdf]; IPAG Business School, Working Paper No.
2014-185. [pdf] 2014. (with S.
Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
[52] “Asymmetric and nonlinear
pass-through of energy prices to CO2 emission allowance prices”, University of
Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 5/2014 [pdf]; IPAG Business School, Working Paper No.
2014-082 [pdf]. 2014. (with S. Hammoudeh, Amine Lahiani and
D.K. Nguyen)
[51] “What explains the short-term
dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?", University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper
No. 4/2014 [pdf]; IPAG Business School, Working Paper No.
2014-081 [pdf]. 2014. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
[50] “Fiscal adjustments and
business cycle synchronization”, CESifo Working Paper No. 4505 [pdf]; DIW Berlin
Working Paper No. 1339 [pdf]. 2013. (with L.
Agnello and G.M. Caporale)
[49] “The effects of monetary
policy in a small open economy: The case of Portugal”, University of Minho,
NIPE Working Paper No. 27/2012. [pdf] 2012.
[48] “The skill premium
of technological change: Evidence from the US manufacturing sector”, University
of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 26/2012. [pdf] 2012. (with S.K.
Mallick)
[47] “Structural breaks and
nonlinearity in US and UK public debt”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper
No. 25/2012. [pdf] 2012.
(with F. Jawadi)
[46] “Consumption and wealth
in the US, the UK and the euro area: A nonlinear investigation”, University of
Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 24/2012. [pdf] 2012.
(with F. Jawadi)
[45] “Modelling money demand:
Further evidence from an international comparison”, University of Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 23/2012. [pdf] 2012. (with F.
Jawadi)
[44] “Money demand in the
euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity”, University
of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 22/2012. [pdf] 2012.
(with F. Jawadi)
[43] “Financial reforms and
income inequality”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 21/2012. [pdf] 2012.
(with L. Agnello and S.K. Mallick)
[42] “Adjusting the U.S.
fiscal policy for asset prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS framework”, University
of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 20/2012. [pdf] 2012.
(with L. Agnello and G. Dufrénot)
[41] “Fiscal adjustments and
income inequality: A first assessment”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper
No. 19/2012. [pdf] 2012. (with L.
Agnello)
[40] “Are there change-points
in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?”, University of Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 18/2012. [pdf] 2012. (with L.
Agnello and V. Castro)
Media mentions: The Telegraph,
2013, April
4th.
[39] “What determines the
duration of a fiscal consolidation program?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working
Paper No. 17/2012. [pdf] 2012. (with L.
Agnello and V. Castro)
Media mentions: The Telegraph,
2013, April
4th.
[38] “How does fiscal
consolidation impact on income inequality?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working
Paper No. 34/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with L.
Agnello)
Media mentions: The Economist, Blog "Free
Exchange", 2011, December
7th;
IMF Fiscal Monitor, October
2012;
Calgary Real Estate,
2011, December
20th;
The Huffington Post,
2011, November
29th;
Prakash Loungani's
Blog, 2011, November
29th;
PoliEcon’s Blog, 2011, November 30th.
[37] “Are stock and housing
returns complements or substitutes? Evidence from OECD countries”, CESifo
Working Paper No. 3621 [pdf]; DIW Berlin
Working Paper No. 1158 [pdf]; Brunel University,
Economics and Finance Working Paper No. 11-15 [pdf]; University of Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 33/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with
G.M. Caporale)
[36] “Consumption, wealth,
stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets”, CESifo
Working Paper No. 3601 [pdf]; DIW Berlin
Working Paper No. 1159 [pdf]; Brunel University,
Economics and Finance Working Paper No. 11-14 [pdf]; University of Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 32/2011 [pdf]. 2011. (with
G.M. Caporale)
[35] “Fiscal policy
discretion, private spending and crisis episodes”, University of Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 31/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with L.
Agnello and D. Furceri)
[34] “How do banking crises
impact on income inequality?”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No.
30/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with L.
Agnello)
Media mentions: Economic Logician's Blog,
2011, December
14th;
PoliEcon’s Blog, 2011, November 30th.
[33] “How does fiscal policy
react to wealth composition and asset prices?”, University of Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 24/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with L.
Agnello and V. Castro)
[32] “Wealth, labour income, stock
returns and government bond yields, and financial stress in the Euro Area”,
University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 22/2011. [pdf] 2011.
[31] “Asset returns under
model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S.”,
University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 21/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with J. Sousa)
[30] "Do windfall gains affect
labour supply? Evidence from the European Household Panel", University of Minho,
NIPE Working Paper No. 20/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with U. Sila)
[29] “Fiscal policy in the
BRICs”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 19/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with F.
Jawadi and S.K. Mallick)
[28] “Monetary policy rules
in the BRICS: How important is nonlinearity?”, University of Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 18/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with F.
Jawadi and S.K. Mallick)
[27] “The real effects of
financial stress in the Eurozone”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No.
12/2011. [pdf] 2011. (with S.K. Mallick)
[26] “Consumption, wealth,
stock and government bond returns: international evidence”, University of Minho,
NIPE Working Paper No. 9/2011 [pdf]; ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon (UTL),
Working Paper No. 9/2011/DE/UECE. [pdf] 2011. (with A. Afonso)
[25] “Fiscal policy and asset
prices", University of
Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 25/2010. [pdf] 2010. (with L. Agnello)
[24] “How do central banks
react to wealth composition and asset prices?", University of
Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 26/2010 [pdf]; University of Coimbra,
GEMF Working Paper No. 19/2010 [pdf]. 2010. (with V.
Castro)
[23] “Collateralizable
wealth, asset returns and systemic risk: international evidence”, University of
Minho, NIPE
Working Paper No. 15/2010. [pdf] 2010.
[22] “How do consumption and
asset returns react to wealth shocks: evidence from the U.S. and the U.K.”,
University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 14/2010. [pdf] 2010.
[21] “Time-varying expected
returns: evidence from the U.S. and the U.K.”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No.
10/2010.
[pdf] 2010.
[20] “The consumption-wealth
ratio and asset returns: The Euro Area, the UK and the US”, University of
Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 9/2010. [pdf] 2010.
[19] “Monetary policy and
economic activity in the BRICS”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No.
27/2009. [pdf] 2009. (with S.K. Mallick)
[18] “What are the wealth
effects of monetary policy?“,. University of Minho,
NIPE Working Paper No. 26/2009. [pdf] 2009.
[17] “Fiscal regime shifts in
Portugal“, University
of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 25/2009 [pdf]; University of Barcelona,
Research Institute of Applied Economics, IREA Working Paper No. 200921 [pdf]; ISEG-Technical
University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 41/2009/DE/UECE [pdf]. 2009. (with A. Afonso and P.
Claeys)
[16] “Fundamentals, financial
factors and the dynamics of investment in emerging markets“, University of
Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 19/2009. [pdf] 2009. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste)
[15] “Asset prices, credit
and investment in emerging markets“, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper
No. 18/2009. [pdf] 2009. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste)
[14] “Wealth effects on
consumption: evidence from the euro area”, University of Minho, NIPE Working
Paper No. 12/2009. [pdf] 2009.
Media mentions: The Economist, Blog "Free
Exchange", 2009, August
19th.
[13] “The determinants of
public deficit volatility“, University of Minho,
NIPE Working Paper No. 11/2009. [pdf] 2009. (with L. Agnello)
[12] “Assessing long-term fiscal
developments: a new approach”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No.
7/2009 [pdf]; ISEG-Technical
University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 19/2009/DE/UECE [pdf]. 2009. (with A. Afonso, L.
Agnello and D. Furceri)
[11] “The impact of government
spending on the private sector: crowding-out versus crowding-in effects”,
University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2009. [pdf] 2009. (with D. Furceri)
Media mentions: CITY A.M.,
2012, May 2nd, Editor's
Letter;
The Economist, 2010,
October 30th – November 5th, p. 76;
RTPN,
2010, November 6th.
[10] “Wealth effects in emerging
market economies”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 4/2009. [pdf] 2009. (with T. Peltonen and I. Vansteenkiste)
[9] “The macroeconomic
effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis”, University of
Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 3/2009 [pdf]; ISEG-Technical
University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 9/2009/DE/UECE. [pdf] 2009. (with A. Afonso)
Media mentions:
Público, 2010, December 27th.
[8] “Assessing long-term
fiscal developments: evidence from Portugal”, University of Minho, NIPE Working
Paper No. 1/2009 [pdf]; ISEG-Technical
University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 3/2009/DE/UECE [pdf]. 2009. (with A. Afonso)
[7] “The macroeconomic
effects of fiscal policy”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 22/2008
[pdf]; ISEG-Technical
University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 56/2008/DE/UECE. [pdf] 2009. (with A. Afonso)
[6] “Fiscal policy, housing
and stock prices”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 21/2008 [pdf]; ISEG-Technical
University of Lisbon (UTL), Working Paper No. 58/2008/DE/UECE [pdf]. 2009. (with A. Afonso)
[5] “Expectations, shocks
and asset returns”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 29/2007. [pdf] 2007.
[4] “Wealth shocks and risk
aversion”, University of Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 28/2007. [pdf] 2010.
[3] “Consumption,
(dis)aggregate wealth, and asset returns”, University of Minho, NIPE Working
Paper No. 9/2005. [pdf] 2005.
[2] “Property of stocks and
wealth effects on consumption“, University of Minho,
NIPE Working Paper No. 2/2003. [pdf] 2003.
[1] “Location,
specialization, diversification indicators, and shift-share analysis:
an application to the NUTIII of North Region in the period 1986-1998“, University of Minho,
NIPE Working Paper No. 13/2001. [pdf] 2001. (with D.
Cabral)
CONFERENCES
[70] FEM-2024:
Financial Economic Meeting, Paris (France), 16-18 December 2024.
[69] 7th International
Workshop on "Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics" (FMND), Paris
(France), 1-2 June 2023.
[68] Economic Research Forum (ERF) 29th Annual Conference, Cairo (Egypt), 4-6
May 2023. Best Paper Award.
[67] American Economic Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, 7-9 January 2022. [online]
[66] EcoMod2021 - International Conference on Economic Modeling and Data
Science, ECOMOD Network and Center for European Studies (CefES), 7-9 July 2021.
[online]
[65] Nineteenth Annual Conference of the European Economics and Finance
Society (EEFS), City University of London and FernUniversität Hagen, 23-25 June
2021. [online]
[64] 5th
International Workshop on "Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics"
(FMND), Paris (France), 3-4 June 2021. [online]
[63] 37th
International Conference of the French Finance Association (AFFI), Nantes
(France), 26-28 May 2021. [online]
[62] 8th EEG Research Day,
University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 12 March 2021. Plenary session. [online]
[61] 7th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments, ISEG/UL –
School of Economics and Management / University of Lisbon, Lisbon (Portugal),
13 September 2019.
[60] 50th Anniversary Conference of the Money, Macro & Finance (MMF)
Group, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London (UK), 4-6
September 2019.
[59] 26th International Conference on "Forecasting Financial
Markets", Ca’ Foscari University, Venice (Italy), 19-21 June 2019.
[58] Eighteenth Annual Conference of the European Economics and Finance
Society (EEFS), University of Genoa, Genoa (Italy), 13-16 June 2019.
[57] Fourth International Workshop on “Financial Markets and Nonlinear
Dynamics” (FMND), Paris (France), 31 May-1 June 2019.
[56] Fifth International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance
(ISCEF), Paris (France), 12-14 April 2018.
[55] XII Annual Seminar on Risk, Financial Stability and Banking, Central Bank
of Brazil, São Paulo (Brazil), 9-11 August 2017.
[54] Fourth Annual
Conference of the Society for Economic Measurement, MIT, Samberg Center, Boston
(USA), 26-28 July 2017.
[53] Sixteenth Annual
Conference of the European Economics and Finance Society (EEFS), University of
Ljubljana, Ljubljana (Slovenia), 22-25 June 2017.
[52] Third International
Workshop on "Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics" (FMND), ESSCA
Paris Campus, Paris (France), 1-2 June 2017.
[51] Energy and Commodity
Finance Conference, ESSEC Business School, Paris (France), 23-24 June 2016.
[50] Fourth International
Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Paris (France), 10-12
April 2016.
[49] Second Annual
Conference of the Society for Economic Measurement, OECD, Paris (France), 22-24
July 2015.
[48] Second International
Workshop on "Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics" (FMND), ESSCA
Paris Campus, Paris (France), 4-5 June 2015.
[47] Annual Meetings of the
Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and the Latin
American Econometric Society (LAMES), School of Economics, Business and Accounting at the
University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), São Paulo (Brazil), 20-22 November 2014.
[46] Annual Meeting of the
Association of Southern European Economic Theorists (ASSET), Aix-Marseille School
of Economics, Aix-en-Provence (France), 6-8 November 2014.
[45] Annual Conference
of the Society for Economic Measurement, University of Chicago’s Booth School
of Business, Chicago (USA), 18-20 August 2014.
[44] 14th Finance Meeting of
the Brazilian Finance Association, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife
(Brazil), 24-26 July 2014. Award of the Brazilian Financial Markets
Association (ANBIMA). Category: Scientific Papers [ranked 1st].
[43] 10th BMRC-DEMS
Conference on Macro and Financial Economics/Econometrics, Brunel University,
London (UK), 28-30 May 2014.
[42] Frontiers of Finance 2014,
University of Warwick, Warwick Business School, Coventry (UK), 24-25 April
2014.
[41] Third International
Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Paris (France), 10-12
April 2014.
[40] Global Finance
Conference, American University of Sharjah, Dubai (United Arab Emirates), 31
March - 2 April 2014. Best Paper Award in Investments, Financial Markets and
Valuation.
[39] Europlace Institute of
Finance Morning Conference, Europlace Institute of Finance, Paris (France), 12
February 2014.
[38] 1st Paris Financial
Management Conference, IPAG Business School, Paris (France), 15-17 December
2013.
[37] 13th Finance Meeting of the
Brazilian Finance Association, Pontific Catholic University, Rio de Janeiro
(Brazil), 18-20 July 2013.
[36] 2013 Annual Meeting of
the European Financial Management Association, Reading (UK), 26-29 June 2013.
[35] Global Political Economy
Network (GPEN)-Centre for Globalization Research (CGR), Queen Mary University
of London, London (UK), 24-25 June 2013.
[34] XXXVI Encontro da
Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (ANPAD),
Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro (Brasil), 22-25 September 2012. Keynote Speaker.
[33] 7th Portuguese Finance
Network, University of Aveiro, Aveiro (Portugal), 5-7 July 2012.
[32] 6th Portuguese Economic Journal
Conference, Porto (Portugal), 5-7 July 2012.
[31] UECE Conference on
Economic and Financial Adjustments in Europe, Lisbon (Portugal), 29 June 2012.
[30] Second
International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance, Tunis
(Tunisia), 15-17 March 2012.
[29] 38th Eastern Economic
Association Annual Conference, Boston (USA), 9-11 March 2012.
[28] 2011 Annual Meeting of
the European Financial Management Association, Braga (Portugal), 22-25 June
2011.
[27] 15th International
Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, Rethymno
(Greece), 26-28 May 2011.
[26] 2011 Annual
Meeting of the European Public Choice Society, Rennes (France), 28 April-1 May 2011.
[25] 37th Eastern
Economic Association Annual Conference, Ramapo College of New Jersey, New York
(USA), 25-27 February 2011.
[24] 23rd Australasian
Finance and Banking Conference, The University of New South Wales, Sydney
(Australia), 15-17 December 2010.
[23] Second Emerging Scholars
in Banking and Finance Conference, Cass Business School, City University of
London, London (UK), 9 December 2010.
[22] Conference on "New
Challenges for Public Debt in Advanced Economies", Banque de France and
Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée (BETA) of the University of
Strasbourg, Strasbourg (France), 16-17 September 2010.
[21] 25th Meeting of the
European Economic Association, Glasgow (Scotland), 23-26 August 2010.
[20] EuroConference 2010 of
the Society for the Study of Emerging Markets, Milas (Turkey), 16-18 July
2010.
[19] International Conference
on Economic Modeling – EcoMod 2010, Istanbul (Turkey), 7-10 July 2010.
[18] 6th Portuguese Finance
Network, Ponta Delgada (Portugal), 1-3 July 2010.
[17] 4th Portuguese Economic
Journal Conference, Faro (Portugal), 25-26 June 2010.
[16] Third Annual Brunel
University PhD Conference in Economics and Finance, Brunel University, London
(UK), 11 June 2010.
[15] First World Finance
Conference, Viana do Castelo (Portugal), 26-28 May 2010.
[14] 2010 Annual Meeting of
the European Public Choice Society, Izmir (Turkey), 8-11 April 2010.
[13] 36th Annual Meeting of
the Eastern Economic Association, Philadelphia (USA), 26-28 February 2010.
[12] First International
Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance, Sousse (Tunisia), 25-27 February 2010.
[11] XVIII International “Tor
Vergata” Banking and Finance Conference, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome
(Italy), 2-4 December 2009.
[10] Center for International
Capital Markets (CICM) Conference 2009, "20 Years of Transition in Central
and Eastern Europe: Money, Banking and Financial Markets", London
Metropolitan Business School, London (UK), 17-18 September 2009.
[9] The Money Macro and
Finance Research Group 41st Annual Conference, Bradford University School of
Management, Bradford (UK), 7-9 September 2009.
[8] 24th Annual
Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA) & 64th European Meeting
of the Econometric Society (ESEM), Barcelona Graduate School of Economics,
Barcelona (Spain), 23-27 August 2009.
[7] 7th INFINITI
Conference on International Finance, Trinity College, The University of Dublin,
Dublin (Ireland), 8-9 June 2009.
[6] 13th International
Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, Rethymno
(Greece), 28-30 May 2009.
[5] International
Conference "10 Years of the Euro: Adjustment in Capital and Labour
Markets", Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), University of Minho, Braga
(Portugal), 7-8 May 2009.
[4] Royal Economic Society
(RES) 2009 Annual Conference, Surrey (UK), 20-22 April 2009.
[3] XVI International “Tor
Vergata” Banking and Finance Conference, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome
(Italy), 5-7 December 2007. Young Economist – BEST PAPER award.
[2] 12th International
Conference in “Computing in Economics and Finance”, Society for Computational
Economics, Limassol (Cyprus), 22-24 June 2006.
[1] IV Meeting of Portuguese
Language’ Economists, Évora (Portugal), 2-4 October 2001.
SEMINARS / WORKSHOPS
[59] University of Lille, Lille (France), 27
February 2023. [online]
[58] Coventry University, Coventry (UK), 17
November 2021. [online]
[57] University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 19
February 2020.
[56] University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 September 2019.
[55] Bank
of Italy, Rome (Italy), 10 April 2019.
[54] National Bank of
Belgium, Brussels (Belgium), 3 April 2019.
[53] University of Lille, Lille (France), 5 February 2019.
[52] European Stability Mechanism
(ESM), Luxembourg (Luxembourg), 1 February 2019.
[51] Queen Mary University of London, London (UK), 16 January 2019.
[50] Birmingham University, Birmingham (UK), 6 November 2018.
[49] Loughborough University, Loughborough (UK), 24 October 2018.
[48] University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 July 2018.
[47] Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), 15 May 2018.
[46] Bank of England, London (UK), 4 May 2018.
[45] European Central Bank, Frankfurt (Germany), 24 April 2018.
[44] King's College London, London (UK), 25 October 2017.
[43] Loughborough
University, Loughborough (UK), 16 June 2017.
[42] Bank for
International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 16 November 2016.
[41] Banque de France,
Paris (France), 8 July 2016.
[40] Bank for
International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 28 June 2016.
[39] Bank for International
Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 28 April 2016.
[38] Bank for
International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 21 April 2016.
[37] Bank for
International Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 30 March 2016.
[36] Bank for International
Settlements (BIS), Basel (Switzerland), 23 February 2016.
[35] European Central Bank,
Frankfurt (Germany), 19 June 2015.
[34] SOAS University of
London, London (UK), 19 March 2015.
[33] Brunel University,
London (UK), 12 December 2014.
[32] ESCB Workshop on House
Price Modeling for Forecasting and Valuations, European Central Bank (ECB),
Frankfurt (Germany), 28 November 2014.
[31] CEGE/NIPE Research
Workshop, Catholic University, Porto (Portugal), 19 September 2014.
[30] PhD program in
Economics, University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 18 September 2014.
[29] NIPE Seminar Series,
University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 17 September 2014.
[28] IPAG Business School,
Paris (France), 10 April 2014.
[27] Ca' Foscari University
of Venice, Venice (Italy), 12 March 2014.
[26] ISEG-Technical
University of Lisbon, Lisbon (Portugal), 22 October 2012.
[25] European Investment
Bank, Luxembourg (Luxembourg), 26 July 2012.
[24] MFAD Induction, Bank of
England, London (UK), 31 May 2012.
[23] MFAD Divisional Meeting,
Bank of England, London (UK), 14 December 2011.
[22] Workshop
"International Political Economy and Cross-Border Effects",
Goodenough College, London (UK), 28 April 2011.
[21] European Central Bank (ECB),
Fiscal Policies Division (FIP), Frankfurt (Germany), 18 March 2011.
[20] City University of
London, London (UK), 10 March 2011.
[19] University of
Birmingham, Birmingham (UK), 18 February 2011.
[18] Brunel University,
London (UK), 17 February 2011.
[17] Bank of England, London
(UK), 10 January 2011.
[16] University of
Southampton, Southampton (UK), 1 December 2009.
[15] NIPE Seminar Series,
University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 25 November 2009.
[14] "Internal
mini-workshop on fiscal and financial issues", European Central Bank
(ECB), Fiscal
Policies Division (FIP), Frankfurt
(Germany), 11 May 2009.
[13] "Economic
Meeting", European
Central Bank (ECB), International
Policy Analysis Division (IPA), Frankfurt (Germany), 21 April 2009.
[12] NIPE Seminar Series,
University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 9 January 2009.
[11] NCB Expert Meeting on
“Money demand”, European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt (Germany), 14 November
2008.
[10] NCB Expert Meeting on
“Cross-checking based on financial flows”, European Central Bank (ECB),
Frankfurt (Germany), 20 October 2008.
[9] European Central Bank
(ECB), International Policy Analysis Division (IPA), Frankfurt (Germany), 14
October 2008.
[8] European Central
Bank (ECB), Monetary Policy Stance Division (MSN), Frankfurt (Germany), 13
October 2008.
[7] University of
Surrey, Guildford (UK), 31 July 2008.
[6] European Central Bank
(ECB), Fiscal Policies Division (FIP), Frankfurt (Germany), 8 July 2008.
[5] University of Minho,
Braga (Portugal), 27 September 2007.
[4] London School of
Economics and Political Science, London (UK), 23 April 2007.
[3] London School of
Economics and Political Science, London (UK), 28 November 2005.
[2] University of Minho,
Braga (Portugal), 9 April 2003.
[1] University of Coimbra,
Coimbra (Portugal), 26 March 2003.
RESEARCH GRANTS
[5] 2012 Europlace Institute of Finance (EIF) Grant
(€10,000.00) (September 2012).
[4] Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Grant
(€1,040.00) (February 2011).
[3] Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
Grant – RES-165-25-0024 (£254,415.37), (with N. Kiyotaki (Princeton
University), C. Julliard (LSE) and A. Michaelides (LSE)): Home Ownership,
Housing Collateral and Aggregate Fluctuations (September 2006 - August 2009).
[2] Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Grant
(€740.00) (August 2009).
[1] Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology
(FCT) Grant – POCI/EGE/58641/2004 (€36,910.00), (with F.
Alexandre (University of Minho), P. Bação (University of Coimbra), J. Driffill
(Birkbeck College, University of London) and V. Gabriel (University of
Surrey)): Monetary Policy and Wealth Effect on Consumption (August 2005 – July
2008).
REFEREEING ACTIVITY
African Finance Journal; Annals of Operations
Research; Applied Economics; British Journal of Management; Bulletin of
Economic Research; Computational Economics; Contemporary Economic Policy;
Economic Inquiry; Economic Modelling; Economic Journal; Economica; Economics
Bulletin; Economic Systems; Empirical Economics; Energy Economics; Energy
Journal; Environment & Planning C: Government and Policy; European
Financial Management; European Journal of Political Economy; International
Journal of Finance and Economics; International Review of Economics and
Finance; International Review of Financial Analysis; International Symposia in
Economic Theory and Econometrics; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of
Economic Behavior & Organization; Journal of Economic Growth; Journal of
Economic Inequality; Journal of Economic Studies; Journal of Empirical Finance;
Journal of Financial Markets; Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Health
Economics; Journal of International Financial Markets,
Institutions & Money; Journal of International Money and Finance; Journal of Labor
Research; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking;
Macroeconomic Dynamics; Open Economies Review; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and
Statistics; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Choice; Public Finance Review;
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance; Review of Development Economics;
Review of Income and Wealth; Review of International Economics; Scottish
Journal of Political Economy; Southern Economic Journal; Studies in Nonlinear
Dynamics & Econometrics; Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics; The B.
E. Journal of Macroeconomics; The Manchester School.