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Timing, performance and causes of failure of inflation stabilization plans
Main researcher:
Francisco José
Veiga
Research Unit:
Economic
Policies Research Unit (NIPE), Universidade do Minho.
Funding:
Fundação
para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) and FEDER, ref. 32491/99 (45041,45 euros).
Duration: 1/12/2000
to 310/11/2003.
Objectives:
This project analyses
several aspects of inflation stabilization programs and aims at providing an
answer to the following questions:
1 - Which economic
and political variables or factors better explain the timing of implementation
of inflation stabilization programs in chronic inflation countries? Do political
models of conflict explain delays better than optimal control models?
2 - Which economic
and political variables or factors affected the most the probability of failure
of inflation stabilization plans implemented in chronic inflation countries?
3 - Which are the
most important economic and political determinants of inflation differences
across countries and time?
4- How has inflation
stabilization evolved in Central and Eastern European countries? What explains
the differences observed in these countries' performances? How does their
experience compare to that of chronic inflation countries, especially to those
of Latin America?
Results:
Articles published in
international scientific journals:
Aisen, Ari
and Francisco José Veiga (2006),
"Does political instability lead
to higher inflation? A panel data analysis."
Forthcoming in the
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Veiga, Francisco José (2005), “IMF
arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilizations.”
Open Economies Review 16(4), 321-340.
Castro, Vítor and Francisco José Veiga (2004),
"Political Business Cycles and Inflation Stabilization",
Economics Letters, 83(1), 1-6.
Veiga,
Francisco José (2000), "Delays of inflation stabilizations", Economics
and Politics, 12(3), 275-295.
Master
thesis:
Vítor Manuel
Alves de Castro
“O atraso na implementação de
planos de estabilização como resultado de conflitos de interesses”
Master in Economic Policy, EEG/UM
January 2003.
Working papers:
Veiga, Francisco José (2003),
"The Political
Economy of Failed Stabilization", NIPE - WP 13/2003.
Aisen, Ari
and Francisco José Veiga (2003), "Does
Political Instability lead to higher and more volatile inflation? A Panel Data
Analysis", NIPE - WP 10/2003. Com Ari Aisen (FMI)
Castro, Vítor and Francisco José Veiga (2002),
"Political
Business Cycles and Inflation Stabilization," NIPE - WP 9 / 2002,
EEG-UM.
Veiga, Francisco José (2002), "IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of
stabilizations," NIPE-WP 2/2002.
Conference proceedings:
Aisen,
Ari and Francisco José Veiga (2005),
“Does political instability lead to higher inflation? A panel data analysis,”
XIII World Congress of the International Economic Association, August/September 2005, Marrakech, Morocco
(on CD-ROM).
Veiga, Francisco José
(2005), “The political economy of failed stabilization.” XIII World Congress of the
International Economic Association, August/September 2005, Marrakech, Morocco (on CD-ROM).
Veiga, Francisco José
(2004),“The political economy of failed stabilization.” 2004 Annual Meeting of the
European Public Choice Society, Berlim, April de 2004 (on CD-ROM).
Veiga, Francisco José
(2003), IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilization, XIII
World Congress of the International Economic Association, Lisbon, Setember
(on CD-ROM).
Aisen,
Ari and Francisco José Veiga (2003), “Does political instability lead to high
and more volatile inflation?
A panel data analysis,”
2003 Annual Meeting
of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association,
Puebla, México, October 2003 (on CD-ROM).
Presentations in conferences:
XIII World Congress of the International Economic Association,
Agosto/Setembro de 2005, Marrakech, Marrocos.
2004 Annual Meeting of
the European Public Choice Society, April 2004, Berlim (Germany)
2003 Annual Meeting
of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association,
Puebla, México, October 2003.
2003 Latin American
Meeting of the Econometric Society,
Panamá City, Panamá, August 2003 (presented by Ari Aisen).
2003
Meeting of the
European Public Choice Society,
Aahrus (Denmark),
April 2003.
2002
Meeting of the Public Choice Society,
San Diego, USA, March de 2002.
XIII World Congress of the
International Economic Association,
Lisbon, September 2002.
7th Conference of the Portuguese
Society of Research in Economics
(SPIE), Aveiro, Portugal, June 2002.
Final
report (in Portuguese) (download -
PDF)
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