Universidade do Minho	Ricardo M. Sousa			London School of Economics and Political Science
Department of Economics University of Minho Campus of Gualtar 4710-057 - Braga - Portugal			Office: EEG - 2.11           Phone: +351 253 601935           Fax: +351 253 676375           Email: rjsousa@eeg.uminho.pt, rjsousa@alumni.lse.ac.uk
CV			Research
Teaching			Links

I am an Associate Professor (on leave) at the Department of Economics and a Researcher at the Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE) of the University of Minho. Previously, I worked as a Senior Economist at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), as an Economist at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB), and held visiting positions at the Bank of Portugal and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I also taught at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and the Queen Mary University of London.

I hold a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science and I am a member of the LSE Alumni Association. At the LSE, I studied under the supervision of Alexander Michaelides (Department of Economics) and Christian Julliard (Department of Finance) and was affiliated at the Financial Markets Group (FMG). I also hold a MPhil in Economic Policy and a BSc in Economics from the University of Minho.

My main research interests are: Macroeconomics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Empirical Finance and Asset Pricing Models, International Finance, Corporate Finance, Macroeconomics, Housing Economics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Emerging Market Economies, Macro-Econometrics and Quantitative Methods, Economic Modeling, Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Econometrics, Energy Economics, Development and Growth, Political Economy, and Regional and Urban Economics.

I have published in international peer-reviewed journals, such as Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Computational Economics, Economic Inquiry, Energy Economics, Energy Policy, European Journal of Political Economy, International Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Real Estate Economics, and Review of International Economics.

My research has been covered in the media, including The Economist, The Telegraph, City A.M., Le Monde, Público and RTPN.

Forthcoming Publications:

• “Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread and flight to quality”, European Financial Management, forthcoming. (with M. Costantini)
• “Unconventional monetary reaction functions: Evidence from the U.S.”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro, F. Jawadi and G. Dufrénot)
• “What can fifty-two collateralizable wealth measures tell us about future housing market returns? Evidence from U.S. state-level data”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, forthcoming. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar)
• "The housing cycle: What role for mortgage market development and housing finance?", Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)

Selected Publications:

• “How does monetary policy respond to the dynamics of the shadow banking sector?”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2020, 25(2), 228-247. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and F. Jawadi)
• “U.S. equity and commodity futures markets: hedging or financialization?”, Energy Economics, 2020, 86, 104660. (joint with D.K. Nguyen, A. Şensoy and G.S. Uddin)
• “A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2019, 63, 101148. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “Can the consumption-wealth ratio predict housing returns? Evidence from OECD countries”, Real Estate Economics, 2019, 47(4), 935-956. (with G.M. Caporale and M.E. Wohar)
• “Asset returns under model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S.”, Computational Economics, 2019, 54(1), 139-176. (with J. Sousa)
• "The legacy and the tyranny of time: Exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50(8), 1969-1994. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “Economic activity, credit market conditions and the housing market cycle”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, 22(7), 1769-1789. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?”, Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 37, 650-665. (with Z. An, J.T. Jalles and P. Loungani)
• “A forensic perspective of the determinants of banks’ CDS spreads”, Journal of Financial Stability, 2017, 33, 60-70. (with N. Benbouzid and S.K. Mallick)
• “Predicting risk premium under changes in the conditional distribution of stock returns”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2017, 50, 204-218. (with J. Sousa)
• “On the macroeconomic impact and the wealth effects of unconventional monetary policy”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017, 21(5), 1189-1204. (with F. Jawadi and R. Traverso)
• “Spillovers from the oil market to the housing market cycle“, Energy Economics, 2017, 61, 209-220. (with L. Agnello, L., V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh) 
• “National fiscal consolidations and regional inequality in Europe”, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2016, 9(1), 59-80. (with L. Agnello and G. Fazio) 
• “Predicting asset returns in the BRICs: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors", International Review of Economics and Finance, 2016, 41, 122-143. (with A. Vivian and M.E. Wohar) 
• ”Booms, busts and normal times in the housing market", Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(1), 25-45. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• ”US monetary policy and commodity sector prices", Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 57, 61-85. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
• ”An empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through to CO2 emission prices”, Energy Economics, 2015, 49, 149-156. (with S. Hammoudeh, A. Lahiani and D.K. Nguyen) 
• ”What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?", European Journal of Political Economy, 2015, 37, 129-145. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles) 
• ”Linking wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields", European Journal of Finance, 2015, 21(10/11), 806-825.
• “What is the impact of wealth shocks on asset allocation?”, Quantitative Finance, 2015, 15(3), 493-508.
• “How does fiscal consolidation impact on income inequality?”, Review of Income and Wealth, 2014, 60(4), 702-726. (with L. Agnello)
• "Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach", Energy Policy, 2014, 70, 201-206. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
• "Political, institutional and economic factors underlying deficit volatility", Review of International Economics, 2013, 21(4), 719-732. (with L. Agnello)
• “What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2013, 37, 113-134. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 2013, 30, 1-17.  (with S.K. Mallick)
• “Real effects of monetary policy in large emerging economies”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2012, 16(S2), 190-212. (with S.K. Mallick)
• “How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 34(3), 874-890. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “Assessing long-term fiscal developments: a new approach”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2011, 30(1), 130-146. (with A. Afonso, L. Agnello and D. Furceri)
• “Consumption, (dis)aggregate wealth and asset returns“, Journal of Empirical Finance, 2010, 17(4), 606-622.

Recent Policy Papers:

• “Assessing fiscal policy stance through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 638 [pdf]. 2017. (with E. Alberola-Ila)
• “External debt composition and domestic credit cycles”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 627 [pdf]. 2017. (with S. Avdjiev and S. Binder)
• “Repo market functioning”, Bank for International Settlements, CGFS Papers, 2017, 59, 1-65. [pdf] Report prepared by a Study Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS).
• “Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of alternative types of bond financing”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 624 [pdf]. 2017. (with J.M. Serena)
• “Inflation expectations and monetary policy", In: Bank for International Settlements, Ed., Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Papers, 2016, 89, 41-67. [pdf] (with J. Yetman)

Recent Working Papers:

• “Linking U.S. state-level housing market returns and the consumption-(dis)aggregate wealth ratio” (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar) Revise and re-submit.
• “On the international co-movement of natural interest rates” (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) Revise and re-submit.
• “Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycles” (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh) Revise and re-submit.
• “Can we do well, while doing good? Investments in green bonds under uncertainty” (joint with D. Stenvall, E. Boyer de la Giroday, R. Jayasekera and G.S. Uddin) Revise and re-submit.
• “Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of alternative types of bond financing” (with J.M. Serena) Revise and re-submit.
• “A quest between fiscal and market discipline” (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) Submitted.
• “Making sense of uncertainty: An application to the Scandinavian banking sector” (with V. Forsström, K. Lind, G.S. Uddin and R. Jayasekera) Submitted.
• “Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: Why "too" low (high) for "so" long?” (with L. Agnello and V. Castro) Submitted.
• “External debt composition and domestic credit cycles” (with S. Avdjiev and S. Binder) Submitted.
• “Reputational effects in sovereign rating phases” (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “The impact of China's monetary policy framework on global commodity prices” (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
• “Lead-lag effects in equity-commodity market links” (with D.K. Nguyen and G.S. Uddin)

Recent Conferences/Seminars:

· University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 September 2019.

· 7th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments, ISEG/UL – School of Economics and Management / University of Lisbon, Lisbon (Portugal), 13 September 2019.

· 50th Anniversary Conference of the Money, Macro & Finance (MMF) Group, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London (UK), 4-6 September 2019.

· 26th International Conference on "Forecasting Financial Markets", Ca’ Foscari University, Venice (Italy), 19-21 June 2019.

· Eighteenth Annual Conference of the European Economics and Finance Society (EEFS), University of Genoa, Genoa (Italy), 13-16 June 2019.

· Fourth International Workshop on “Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics” (FMND), Paris (France), 31 May-1 June 2019.

· Bank of Italy, Rome (Italy), 10 April 2019.

· National Bank of Belgium, Brussels (Belgium), 3 April 2019.

· Lille University, Lille (France), 5 February 2019.

· Queen Mary University of London, London (UK), 16 January 2019.

· Birmingham University, Birmingham (UK), 6 November 2018.

· Loughborough University, Loughborough (UK), 24 October 2018.

· University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 July 2018.

· Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), 15 May 2018.

· Bank of England, London (UK), 4 May 2018.

· European Central Bank, Frankfurt (Germany), 24 April 2018.

· Fifth International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Paris (France), 12-14 April 2018.

· King’s College London, London (UK), 25 October 2017.

Selected Media Coverage:

· Jornal de Negócios, 2020, March 18th.

· Jornal de Negócios, 2020, March 9th.

· Público, 2019, October 23rd.

· Le Monde, 2019, October 3rd.

· The Economist, 2016, October 29th – November 4th, p.22.

· The Telegraph, 2013, April 4th.

· Calgary Real Estate, 2011, December 20th.

· The Huffington Post, 2011, November 29th.

· The Economist, Blog "Free Exchange", 2011, December 7th.

· Público, 2010, December 27th.

· RTPN, 2010, November 6th.

· The Economist, 2010, October 30th – November 5th, p. 76.

· The Economist, Blog "Free Exchange", 2009, August 19th.