Universidade do Minho	Ricardo M. Sousa			London School of Economics and Political Science
Department of Economics University of Minho Campus of Gualtar 4710-057 - Braga - Portugal			Office: EEG - 2.11           Phone: +351 253 601935           Fax: +351 253 676375           Email: rjsousa@eeg.uminho.pt, rjsousa@alumni.lse.ac.uk
CV			Research
Teaching			Links

I am an Assistant Professor with Tenure (on leave) at the Department of Economics and a Researcher at the Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE) of the University of Minho.

I hold a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science and I am a member of the LSE Alumni Association. At the LSE, I studied under the supervision of Alexander Michaelides (Department of Economics) and Christian Julliard (Department of Finance) and was affiliated at the Financial Markets Group (FMG).

My main research interests are: Macroeconomics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Empirical Finance and Asset Pricing Models, International Finance, Housing Economics, Emerging Market Economies, Macro-Econometrics and Quantitative Methods, Economic Modeling, Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Econometrics, Energy Economics, and Development and Growth.

Recent policy papers:

• “Assessing fiscal policy stance through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 638 [pdf]. 2017. (with E. Alberola-Ila)
• “External debt composition and domestic credit cycles”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 627 [pdf]. 2017.  (with S. Avdjiev and S. Binder)
• “Repo market functioning”, Bank for International Settlements, CGFS Papers, 2017, 59, 1-65. [pdf] Report prepared by a Study Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS).
• “Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of alternative types of bond financing”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 624 [pdf]. 2017. (with J.M. Serena)
• “Inflation expectations and monetary policy", In: Bank for International Settlements, Ed., Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Papers, 2016, 89, 41-67. [pdf] (with J. Yetman)

Recent publications:

• “The impact of fiscal consolidation on human development”, Journal of International Development, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles)
• “Wealth-to-income ratio and stock market movements: Evidence from a nonparametric causality test”, International Review of Finance, forthcoming. (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and M.E. Wohar)
• “Asset returns under model uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S.”, Computational Economics, forthcoming. (with J. Sousa)
• “Economic activity, credit market conditions and the housing market cycle”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• “Can the consumption-wealth ratio predict housing returns? Evidence from OECD countries”, Real Estate Economics, forthcoming. (with G.M. Caporale and M.E. Wohar)

• “On the macroeconomic impact and the wealth effects of unconventional monetary policy”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017, 21(5), 1189-1204. (with F. Jawadi and R. Traverso)
• “The skill premium effect of technological change: Evidence from the US manufacturing sector”, International Labour Review, 2017, 155(1), 113-131.  (with S.K. Mallick)
• “Do country-level financial structures explain bank-level CDS spreads?”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2017, 48, 135-145. (with N. Benbouzid and S.K. Mallick)
• ”Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability”, International Tax and Public Finance, 2017, 24(3), 484-511. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles)
• ”Spillovers from the oil market to the housing market cycle”, Energy Economics, 2017, 61, 209-220. (with L. Agnello, L., V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh)

• ”Fiscal and monetary policies in the BRICS: A Panel VAR approach”, Economic Modelling, 2016, 58, 535-542. (with F. Jawadi and S.K. Mallick)
• “National fiscal consolidations and regional inequality in Europe”, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2016, 9(1), 59-80. (with L. Agnello and G. Fazio)
• “Predicting asset returns in the BRICs: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors", International Review of Economics and Finance, 2016, 41, 122-143. (with A. Vivian and M.E. Wohar)

• ”Booms, busts and normal times in the housing market", Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(1), 25-45. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• ”US monetary policy and commodity sector prices", Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 57, 61-85. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
• ”What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?", European Journal of Political Economy, 2015, 37, 129-145. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles)
• ”Linking wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields", European Journal of Finance, 2015, 21(10/11), 806-825.
• ”What is the impact of wealth shocks on asset allocation?”, Quantitative Finance, 2015, 15(3), 493-508.

• ”How does fiscal consolidation impact on income inequality?”, Review of Income and Wealth, 2014, 60(4), 702-726. (with L. Agnello)
• ”What explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?", Energy Economics, 2014, 46, 122-135. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
• ”Fiscal adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment", Economics Letters, 2014, 124(2), 231-235. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles)
• ”Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach", Energy Policy, 2014, 70, 201-206. (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)

• ”Political, institutional and economic factors underlying deficit volatility", Review of International Economics, 2013, 21(4), 719-732. (with L. Agnello)
• ”What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2013, 37, 113-134. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
• ”The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 2013, 30, 1-17. Lead article. (with S.K. Mallick)