I am an Associate
Professor at the Department
of Economics and
a Researcher at the Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE) of the University of Minho. Previously, I worked
as a Senior Economist at the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the Bank
for International Settlements (BIS), as an Economist at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB),
and held visiting positions at the Central Bank of Portugal and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). I also taught at the London School of
Economics and Political Science (LSE) and the Queen Mary University of London.
I hold a PhD in
Economics from the London School of
Economics and Political Science and I am a member of the LSE Alumni
Association. At the LSE, I studied under the supervision of Alexander Michaelides (Department of Economics) and Christian Julliard (Department of Finance) and was affiliated at
the Financial Markets Group (FMG). I also hold a
MPhil in Economic Policy and a BSc in Economics from the University of Minho.
My main research interests are: Macroeconomics,
Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Empirical Finance and Asset Pricing Models,
International Finance, Housing Economics, Emerging Markets, Macro-Econometrics
and Quantitative Methods, Economic Modeling, Bayesian Model Averaging and
Bayesian Econometrics, Energy Economics, and Development and Growth.
I have published in international peer-reviewed
journals, such as Cambridge Journal of
Regions, Economy and Society, Computational Economics, Economic Inquiry, Energy
Economics, Energy Policy, European Journal of Political Economy, International
Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,
Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of
International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Journal of
International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Real Estate Economics, and Review of International Economics.
the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, forthcoming.
(with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
- "The housing cycle: What role for mortgage
market development and housing finance?", Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, forthcoming. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
- “Asset returns under model
uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the
Economics, 2019, 54(1), 139-176. (with J.
- "The legacy and the tyranny of time: Exit and
re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets", Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking, 2018,
50(8), 1969-1994. (with L. Agnello and V.
IMF fiscal forecasts add value?”, Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 37, 650-665. (with Z. An, J.T. Jalles and
- “A forensic perspective of the determinants of
banks’ CDS spreads”, Journal of Financial Stability, 2017, 33, 60-70. (with N. Benbouzid
and S.K. Mallick)
- “On the macroeconomic impact and the wealth effects of
unconventional monetary policy”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017,
21(5), 1189-1204. (with F. Jawadi and R. Traverso)
fiscal consolidations and regional inequality in Europe”, Cambridge Journal
of Regions, Economy and Society, 2016, 9(1),
59-80. (with L. Agnello and G. Fazio)
- ”Booms, busts and normal times in the housing
market", Journal of Business &
Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(1), 25-45. (with
L. Agnello and V. Castro)
- ”US monetary policy and commodity sector
prices", Journal of International Money and
Finance, 2015, 57, 61-85. (with S. Hammoudeh
and D.K. Nguyen)
- ”What determines the likelihood of structural
reforms?", European Journal of Political Economy, 2015, 37,
129-145. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles)
- ”Linking wealth and labour
income with stock returns and government bond yields", European
Journal of Finance, 2015, 21(10/11), 806-825.
“What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2013,
37, 113-134. (with L. Agnello and V.
“The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone”, International
Review of Financial Analysis, 2013, 30, 1-17.
(with S.K. Mallick)
does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012,
34(3), 874-890. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
“Assessing long-term fiscal developments: a new approach”, Journal
of International Money and Finance, 2011, 30(1), 130-146.
(with A. Afonso, L. Agnello
and D. Furceri)
wealth and asset returns“, Journal of Empirical
Finance, 2010, 17(4), 606-622.
Recent Policy Papers:
- “Assessing fiscal policy stance
through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles”, Bank
for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 638 [pdf]. 2017. (with
- “External debt composition and
domestic credit cycles”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper
No. 627 [pdf]. 2017. (with
S. Avdjiev and S. Binder)
- “Repo market functioning”, Bank
for International Settlements, CGFS Papers, 2017, 59,
1-65. [pdf] Report prepared by a Study
Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS).
- “Does exchange rate depreciation
have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of
alternative types of bond financing”, Bank for
International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 624 [pdf]. 2017. (with J.M. Serena)
- “Inflation expectations and
monetary policy", In: Bank for International Settlements, Ed., Inflation
mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, Bank for
International Settlements, BIS Papers, 2016, 89,
41-67. [pdf] (with J. Yetman)
- Bank of Italy, Rome (Italy), 10 April 2019.
- National Bank of Belgium, Brussels (Belgium), 3
- Lille University, Lille (France), 5 February
- Queen Mary University of London, London (UK), 16
- Birmingham University, Birmingham (UK), 6
- Loughborough University, Loughborough (UK), 24
- University of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 July 2018.
- Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK),
15 May 2018.
- Bank of England, London
(UK), 4 May 2018.
- European Central Bank,
Frankfurt (Germany), 24 April 2018.
International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Paris
(France), 12-14 April 2018.
College London, London (UK), 25 October 2017.