I am an Associate
Professor with Habilitation at the Department of Economics, a Researcher at
the Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE) of the University of Minho, and an Associate
Editor of the Economic
Modelling. Previously, I worked as a Senior Economist at the Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), as an Economist at the Bank
of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), and held
visiting positions at the Bank of Portugal and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF). I also taught at the London School of Economics
and Political Science (LSE) and the Queen Mary University of London.
I hold a PhD in
Economics from the London School of
Economics and Political Science and I am a member of the LSE Alumni
Association. At the LSE, I studied under the supervision of Alexander Michaelides (Department of Economics) and Christian Julliard (Department of Finance) and was affiliated at
the Financial Markets Group (FMG). I also hold a MPhil in Economic
Policy and a BSc in Economics from the University of Minho.
My main research interests are:
Macroeconomics, Monetary and Fiscal Policy, Empirical Finance and Asset Pricing
Models, International Finance, Corporate Finance, Housing Economics, Emerging
Market Economies, Macro-Econometrics and Quantitative Methods, Economic
Modeling, Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Econometrics, Energy Economics,
Development and Growth, Political Economy, and Regional and Urban Economics.
I have published in international peer-reviewed
journals, such as Cambridge Journal of
Regions, Economy and Society, Computational Economics, Economic Inquiry, Energy
Economics, Energy Policy, European Journal of Political Economy, International
Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,
Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of
International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Journal of
International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Real Estate Economics, and Review of International Economics.
My research has been covered in the media, including The Economist, The Telegraph, City A.M., Le Monde,
Jornal de Negócios, Público and RTPN.
housing cycle: What role for mortgage market development and housing
of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2020, 61, 607-670. (with L. Agnello
and V. Castro)
monetary reaction functions: Evidence from the U.S.”, Studies
in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2020, 24(4), 20180088. (with L. Agnello,
V. Castro, F. Jawadi and G. Dufrénot)
- “Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy
prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycles”, Energy Economics, 2020, 90,
104862. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh)
asset wealth, equity premium, term spread and flight to quality”, European Financial Management, 2020, 26(3), 778-807.
(with M. Costantini)
- “How does monetary policy respond to the dynamics of the shadow
banking sector?”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2020, 25(2), 228-247. (with L. Agnello,
V. Castro and F. Jawadi)
- “U.S. equity and commodity futures markets: hedging or financialization?”, Energy Economics, 2020,
86, 104660. (joint with D.K. Nguyen, A. Şensoy
and G.S. Uddin)
- “A competing risks tale on successful and
unsuccessful fiscal consolidations”, Journal of International Financial Markets,
Institutions and Money, 2019, 63, 101148.
(with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
- “Can the consumption-wealth ratio predict housing
returns? Evidence from OECD countries”, Real Estate Economics, 2019, 47(4), 935-956. (with G.M. Caporale
and M.E. Wohar)
- “Asset returns under model
uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the
Economics, 2019, 54(1), 139-176. (with J.
- "The legacy and the tyranny of time: Exit and
re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets", Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking, 2018, 50(8), 1969-1994. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
- “Economic activity, credit market conditions and the
housing market cycle”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, 22(7), 1769-1789. (with L. Agnello
and V. Castro)
IMF fiscal forecasts add value?”, Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 37, 650-665. (with
Z. An, J.T. Jalles and P. Loungani)
- “A forensic perspective of the determinants of
banks’ CDS spreads”, Journal of Financial Stability, 2017, 33, 60-70. (with N. Benbouzid
and S.K. Mallick)
risk premium under changes in the conditional distribution of stock
of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2017, 50, 204-218. (with J.
- “On the macroeconomic impact and the wealth effects of
unconventional monetary policy”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017,
21(5), 1189-1204. (with F. Jawadi and R. Traverso)
- “Spillovers from the oil
market to the housing market cycle“, Energy Economics, 2017, 61,
209-220. (with L. Agnello, L., V. Castro and S. Hammoudeh)
fiscal consolidations and regional inequality in Europe”, Cambridge
Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2016,
9(1), 59-80. (with L. Agnello and G.
- “Predicting asset returns in the BRICs: The role of macroeconomic
and fundamental predictors", International
Review of Economics and Finance, 2016, 41,
122-143. (with A. Vivian and M.E. Wohar)
- ”Booms, busts and normal times in the housing
market", Journal of Business &
Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(1), 25-45. (with
L. Agnello and V. Castro)
- ”US monetary policy and commodity sector
prices", Journal of International Money and
Finance, 2015, 57, 61-85. (with S. Hammoudeh
and D.K. Nguyen)
- ”An empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through
to CO2 emission prices”, Energy Economics, 2015,
49, 149-156. (with S. Hammoudeh, A. Lahiani and D.K. Nguyen)
- ”What determines the likelihood of structural
reforms?", European Journal of Political Economy, 2015,
37, 129-145. (with L. Agnello, V. Castro and J. Jalles)
- ”Linking wealth and labour
income with stock returns and government bond yields", European
Journal of Finance, 2015, 21(10/11), 806-825.
- “What is the impact of wealth shocks on asset
allocation?”, Quantitative Finance, 2015,
does fiscal consolidation impact on income inequality?”, Review
of Income and Wealth, 2014, 60(4), 702-726. (with
- "Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance
prices: A quantile regression approach", Energy Policy, 2014,
70, 201-206. (with S. Hammoudeh and
institutional and economic factors underlying deficit volatility", Review
of International Economics, 2013, 21(4), 719-732. (with
- “What determines the duration of a fiscal
consolidation program?”, Journal of International
Money and Finance, 2013, 37, 113-134. (with
L. Agnello and V. Castro)
- “The real effects of financial stress in the
Eurozone”, International Review of Financial
Analysis, 2013, 30, 1-17. (with S.K. Mallick)
- “Real effects of monetary policy in large emerging economies”, Macroeconomic
Dynamics, 2012, 16(S2), 190-212. (with
- “How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition
and asset prices?”, Journal of
Macroeconomics, 2012, 34(3), 874-890. (with L. Agnello and V. Castro)
- “Assessing long-term fiscal developments: a new
approach”, Journal of International Money and
Finance, 2011, 30(1), 130-146. (with A. Afonso, L. Agnello and D. Furceri)
- “Consumption, (dis)aggregate
wealth and asset returns“, Journal of
Empirical Finance, 2010, 17(4), 606-622.
Recent Policy Papers:
- “Assessing fiscal policy stance
through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles”, Bank
for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 638 [pdf]. 2017. (with
- “External debt composition and
domestic credit cycles”, Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Paper
No. 627 [pdf]. 2017. (with
S. Avdjiev and S. Binder)
- “Repo market functioning”, Bank
for International Settlements, CGFS Papers, 2017, 59,
1-65. [pdf] Report prepared by a Study
Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS).
- “Does exchange rate depreciation
have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The implications of
alternative types of bond financing”, Bank for International
Settlements, BIS Working Paper No. 624 [pdf]. 2017. (with J.M.
- “Inflation expectations and
monetary policy", In: Bank for International Settlements, Ed., Inflation
mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, Bank for
International Settlements, BIS Papers, 2016, 89,
41-67. [pdf] (with J. Yetman)
Recent Working Papers:
- “Interest rate gaps in an
uncertain global context: Why "too" low (high) for
"so" long?” (with L. Agnello and V.
Castro) Revise and re-submit.
- “Linking U.S.
state-level housing market returns and the consumption-(dis)aggregate
wealth ratio” (with M. Balcilar, R. Gupta and
M.E. Wohar) Revise and re-submit.
- “On the international
co-movement of natural interest rates” (with L. Agnello
and V. Castro) Revise and
- “Can we do well, while
doing good? Investments in green bonds under uncertainty” (joint with D. Stenvall, E. Boyer de la Giroday,
R. Jayasekera and G.S. Uddin) Revise and re-submit.
- “Does exchange rate
depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment? The
implications of alternative types of bond financing”
(with J.M. Serena) Revise and re-submit.
- “What uncertainty does
to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to
quality” (with M. Costantini) Submitted.
- “A quest between fiscal
and market discipline” (with L. Agnello and V.
- “Making sense of
uncertainty: An application to the Scandinavian banking sector” (with V. Forsström, K. Lind, G.S. Uddin and R. Jayasekera) Submitted.
- “External debt composition and
domestic credit cycles” (with S. Avdjiev and S. Binder) Submitted.
- “The impact of China's
monetary policy framework on global commodity prices” (with S. Hammoudeh and D.K. Nguyen)
effects in equity-commodity market links” (with D.K. Nguyen and G.S.
of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 September 2019.
Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments, ISEG/UL – School of Economics
and Management / University of Lisbon, Lisbon (Portugal), 13 September 2019.
Anniversary Conference of the Money, Macro & Finance (MMF) Group, London
School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London (UK), 4-6 September
26th International Conference on "Forecasting
Financial Markets", Ca’ Foscari University,
Venice (Italy), 19-21 June 2019.
Eighteenth Annual Conference of the European
Economics and Finance Society (EEFS), University of Genoa, Genoa (Italy), 13-16
Fourth International Workshop on “Financial Markets
and Nonlinear Dynamics” (FMND), Paris (France), 31 May-1 June 2019.
of Italy, Rome (Italy), 10 April 2019.
Bank of Belgium, Brussels (Belgium), 3 April 2019.
University, Lille (France), 5 February 2019.
Mary University of London, London (UK), 16 January 2019.
University, Birmingham (UK), 6 November 2018.
University, Loughborough (UK), 24 October 2018.
of Minho, Braga (Portugal), 20 July 2018.
University, Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), 15 May 2018.
Bank of England, London (UK), 4 May 2018.
European Central Bank, Frankfurt (Germany), 24 April
Fifth International Symposium in Computational
Economics and Finance (ISCEF), Paris (France), 12-14 April 2018.
King’s College London, London (UK), 25 October 2017.
Selected Media Coverage:
sem união para seguir Fed, para já”, Jornal
de Negócios, 10/09/2020.
“Fed olha por Main Street, mas
premeia Wall Street”, Jornal de Negócios, 01/09/2020.
velha luta da Fed pela inflação, com nova linguagem”,
de Negócios, 01/09/2020.
Sousa sobre o BCE: “O ‘helicopter money’
seria uma boa solução””, Jornal de Negócios, 04/06/2020.
resposta europeia à pandemia: um “castelo de cartas”?”, Público,
das bolsas: solução efetiva ou o adiar do problema?”, Jornal de Negócios, 18/03/2020.
europeus cabem na cova de um dente do S&P 500”, Jornal de Negócios, 09/03/2020.
20 anos do euro: o problema das lentes a “preto e zero””, Público,
“Les limites du miracle portugais”, Le Monde, 03/10/2019.
gap between poor and rich regions in Europe is widening: Austerity is partly to
blame”, The Economist, 2016, October 29th – November 4th,
revive the economy, cut spending”, The Telegraph, 204/04/2013.
income inequality: Side-effect of fight against crises?”, Calgary
Real Estate, 20/12/2011.
percenters hurt more by austerity measures than the 1 percent: Study”, The
Huffington Post, 29/11/2011.
weekly papers: Interesting economics research”, The Economist, Blog "Free Exchange", 07/12/2011.
dos cortes: Corte nos salários da função pública prejudica dívida pública”,
“Far from the meddling crowd:
Economists struggle to answer a vital question”, The Economist, 2010, October 30th – November 5th, p.76.
housing wealth effect: Falling prices don’t crimp consumption”, The
Economist, Blog "Free Exchange", 19/08/2009.